The word “no signal” is displayed on the notification screen of the outer wall of the Constitutional Court in Seoul on March 23, a day before the sentencing date of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo’s impeachment trial. Reporter Lee Jun-heon

A fateful week that will determine the direction of Korea’s political situation has begun. Starting with the Constitutional Court’s ruling on the impeachment trial of Prime Minister Han Duck-soo on March 24, the appeal verdict on Lee Jae-myung, leader of the main opposition party Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), is scheduled to be announced on the 26th. Lee filed an appeal against his conviction related to charges of violating the Public Official Election Act. Some predict that the Constitutional Court will deliver a decision on President Yoon Suk-yeol’s impeachment trial in the mid-to-late this week. In short, this week is likely to be a week that will determine whether and when an early presidential election will be held, who will manage it, and the political fate of the leading opposition candidate.

The first thing to be decided is the future of Prime Minister Han. The Constitutional Court will rule on whether or not to impeach Han at 10 a.m. on the 24th. Han was impeached last year for aiding and abetting the Yoon’s declaration of martial law on December 3 last year and refusing to appoint a constitutional court judge. If the Constitutional Court dismisses Han’s impeachment, he will immediately return to work. If an early presidential election becomes a reality as Yoon is impeached, Han will be in charge of managing the entire election process, including announcing the date of the election. Acting President Choi Sang-mok will return to his position as the deputy prime minister and finance minister. In this case, the opposition parties’ push for Choi’s impeachment is expected to lose momentum. This is because the effectiveness of the impeachment decreases as the right to appoint Ma Eun-hyuk, a candidate for constitutional court judge, which was the main reason for the impeachment, is handed over to Prime Minister Han again. There is also a possibility that Choi will resign as a minister to avoid an impeachment trial.

If the Constitutional Court decides to impeach Han, he will be immediately removed from office, and Choi would become the administrator of an early presidential election. There is also a possibility that Choi will reconsider the appointment of Ma, which has been delayed. “Han Duck-soo and Choi Sang-mok are independent issues,” said Park Chan-dae, floor leader of the DPK, at a press conference on the 23rd, adding, ”We are discussing the date of the plenary session with the National Assembly Speaker’s office so that the impeachment bill against acting president Choi can be passed as soon as possible.”

On the 26th, the appeal verdict on Lee Jae-myung, a leading presidential candidate, will be announced. In the first trial, Lee was sentenced to one year in prison and two years of probation, which is equivalent to invalidity of election. If the ruling is upheld in the second trial, the attacks against Lee inside and outside of the party are likely to intensify. Immediately, the issue of candidate eligibility may be raised, especially among the anti-Lee Jae-myung faction. “Currently, the DPK has an advantage (over the ruling People Power Party) in the electoral landscape, but if Lee is found guilty in the second trial, the election could become a close game,” said a lawmaker from the anti-Lee faction, ”which will naturally affect the moderates.” Kweon Seong-dong, floor leader of the ruling People Power Party (PPP), said at a press conference, “The DPK is threatening the judiciary because it is certain that Lee will be found guilty of violating the Public Official Election Act.”

Some say that Lee’s judicial risk is already reflected in public opinion. A key DPK official said, “It will not affect public opinion at all because it has been known for a long time.” If the second trial results in an acquittal or a fine of less than 1 million won, the threshold for deprivation of the right to run for an election, the support for Lee will be likely to be strengthened, but if an early presidential election is held, Lee’s judicial risk is likely to be his major weak point throughout an election campaign.

The verdict of Yoon’s impeachment trial is the biggest variable this week in determining whether an early presidential election will be held. Political circles expect that the schedule for the announcement of the decision will come out on between 26th and 28th. For former President Roh Moo-hyun, the sentencing date was announced three days in advance, and for former President Park Geun-hye, two days in advance. As soon as the sentencing date is announced, the political community is expected to enter a full-fledged presidential election mode. If Yoon is impeached, he will be immediately removed from office, and an early presidential election will likely be held in late May, as the Public Official Election Act requires a presidential election to be held within 60 days.