Estimated support rates of major presidential candidates as of May 19, based on five months of polling data from multiple institutions analyzed by the Kyunghyang Shinmun and Professor Han Kyu-seop's research team from Seoul National University’s Department of Communication. / The Kyunghyang Shinmun website

Lee Jae-myung, the candidate of the liberal Democratic Party of Korea (DPK), continues to maintain a commanding lead with 47.4 percent support as of May 22 in the race for the presidential election scheduled for June 3, according to an analysis of recent shifts in major candidates’ approval ratings. However, candidate Kim Moon-soo of the conservative People Power Party (PPP) has seen his support rise by approximately 9 percentage points compared to a week earlier, narrowing the gap between the two candidates.

The uptick in conservative voter concentration appears to have played a significant role. The Kyunghyang Shinmun’s data journalism team, in collaboration with Professor Han Kyu-seop’s research team from Seoul National University’s Department of Communication, analyzed polling data from multiple institutions over the past five months. They derived "estimated support rates" as of May 19 from a total of 278 opinion polls registered with the National Election Survey Deliberation Commission between December 22 of last year and May 19.

Lee Jae-myung leads with 47.4 percent, maintaining a lead beyond the margin of error. This marks a 1.9 percentage point drop from his estimated support rate of 49.3 percent on May 12. Meanwhile, Kim Moon-soo rose to 34.3 percent, a 9.2 percentage point increase from 25.1 percent a week ago. Lee Jun-seok of the minor conservative New Reform Party also saw a slight increase to 7.4 percent, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous week (5.7 percent). In a hypothetical three-way race, Lee Jae-myung still leads with 49.2 percent, followed by Kim Moon-soo at 32.6 percent, and Lee Jun-seok at 7.4 percent. However, the gap between Lee Jae-myung and Kim Moon-soo has narrowed by 2.4 percentage points compared to a week ago.

In the Seoul metropolitan area, home to half of the country’s voters, Lee Jae-myung also remains the frontrunner. In Seoul, he holds 46.0 percent support, with Kim Moon-soo at 32.1 percent and Lee Jun-seok at 7.1 percent. In the region of Incheon and Gyeonggi Province, Lee Jae-myung is at 50.4 percent, Kim Moon-soo at 33.0 percent, and Lee Jun-seok at 7.5 percent. Notably, Kim Moon-soo’s support rate in Seoul and the region of Incheon and Gyeonggi Province has jumped by 16.5 and 14.6 percentage points respectively compared to the previous week.

Among voters in their 20s and 30s, who are often regarded as swing voters, Lee Jae-myung continues to lead, but support rate for both Kim Moon-soo and Lee Jun-seok has increased. Among 20-year-olds, support rate stood at 38.4 percent for Lee Jae-myung, 19.6 percent for Kim Moon-soo, and 15.5 percent for Lee Jun-seok. Among those in their 30s, Lee Jae-myung at 44.9 percent, Kim Moon-soo at 24.3 percent, and Lee Jun-seok at 11.1 percent.

Overall, while Lee Jae-myung remains in a strong leading position, Kim Moon-soo is closing the gap, likely because an increasing number of conservative voters are rallying around him.

Yoon Ho-joong, general director of the DPK’s central election committee, warned during a general meeting of the committee at the party’s headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, “If arrogance or complacency takes root in our hearts, the public will notice first and deliver judgment. We must humbly do our utmost until the very end, with a sense of reverence for the people.”

Shin Dong-wook, spokesperson for the PPP’s central election committee, said in a commentary, “The people do not want a kingdom of Lee Jae-myung, rife with ideological, generational, gender, and regional conflicts. June 3 will be ‘a day of overwhelming reckoning’ for Lee Jae-myung.”