President Lee Jae-myung won a historic victory in the presidential election on June 3 by defeating Kim Moon-soo, the candidate of the conservative People Power Party (PPP), in the Seoul metropolitan area and South and North Chungcheong Provinces, both considered key battlegrounds, and performing strongly in Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province. He earned a record-breaking 17,287,513 votes, the highest vote count in Korea’s presidential election history. While in the previous election Lee only won 11 out of Seoul’s 25 districts against former President Yoon Suk-yeol, this time he claimed victory in 21 districts, losing only in the three affluent “Gangnam districts” and Yongsan district. The outcome is widely seen as a public judgment on former President Yoon’s illegal imposition of martial law on December 3 of last year and alleged role in inciting rebellion.

However, Lee’s vote share was 49.4 percent, falling short of a majority. Kim still secured 14,395,639 votes (41.2 percent), leading some analysts to interpret this as a sign of conservative consolidation to check Lee’s power.

According to the National Election Commission on June 4, Lee won 47.1 percent of the vote in Seoul, beating Kim (41.6 percent) by 5.5 percentage points. In the previous presidential election in 2022, Lee had lost to former President Yoon in Seoul, 45.7 percent to 50.6 percent, but reversed the trend against Kim.

Previously, Lee had only won in 11 traditional Democratic strongholds such as Dobong, Gangbuk, Gangseo, Eunpyeong, and Guro districts. This time, he expanded his victories to 21 districts, excluding Gangnam, Seocho, Songpa, and Yongsan. Districts along the “Han River Belt,” such as Mapo, Seongdong, Gwangjin, Yangcheon, Dongjak, Yeongdeungpo, and Gangdong, which Lee lost in the previous election, flipped in his favor.

In Gyeonggi Province, Lee secured a decisive win with 52.2 percent of the vote to Kim’s 38.0 percent, a 14.2-point lead. The matchup between two former Gyeonggi governors ended in a landslide for Lee, who won in 26 out of the 31 municipalities. In Incheon, Lee won 51.7 percent to Kim’s 38.4 percent, a 13.3-point lead.

Lee also won in the Chungcheong region, often viewed as the kingmaker in Korean elections. In contrast to the previous election, where Yoon dominated the area, Lee prevailed in Daejeon (48.5 percent vs. 40.6 percent), South Chungcheong Province (47.7 percent vs. 43.3 percent), North Chungcheong Province (47.5 percent vs. 43.2 percent), and Sejong (55.6 percent vs. 33.2 percent). North Chungcheong Province, which has consistently voted for the eventual winner in the past eight presidential elections, once again lived up to its reputation as a political bellwether.

In the Honam region, Lee enjoyed overwhelming support, including Gwangju (84.8 percent), South Jeolla Province (85.9 percent), and North Jeolla Province (82.7 percent). In Wand-gun, South Jeolla Province, his support peaked at 89.9 percent, the highest in any municipality nationwide.

While Lee lost in all regions of Yeongnam, he made notable gains. In Busan, he garnered 895,213 votes (40.1 percent), becoming the first Democratic candidate to exceed 40 percent there. In Ulsan, he received a record-high 42.5 percent for a Democratic candidate. Though his vote share remained in the 20 percent range in Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, he achieved 31.3 percent in his hometown of Andong, the only municipality in the Yeongnam region where he surpassed 30 percent.

Choi Byung-chun, head of the New Growth Economy Research Center, said in a phone interview, “As people sensed a return to authoritarianism following the martial law declaration, voters in Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province responded.”

In Gangwon Province, although Lee still lost to Kim, the margin narrowed significantly to 3.3 percentage points, compared to his 12.5-point defeat to Yoon in the previous election.

Despite winning in every region except the Yeongnam region and Gangwon Province, President Lee failed to secure a majority vote.

Even though this was an early presidential election triggered by Yoon’s impeachment following his martial law declaration, the conservative base still turned out in large numbers. Combined support for the progressive parties, Lee and Democratic Labor Party candidate Kwon Young-gook, totaled 50.4 percent, just 0.9 percentage points ahead of the conservative parties’ combined support for Kim and Lee Jun-seok of the New Reform Party (49.5 percent).

Choi commented, “Such a high turnout couldn’t have come from the progressive base alone. On election day afternoon, turnout rose noticeably in conservative strongholds like the Yeongnam region and Seoul’s Gangnam area. In the end, conservatives rallied to check Lee and the Democratic Party of Korea.”