Relations between China and Japan have rapidly frozen after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said Japan could exercise the right of collective self-defense in the event of a Taiwan contingency. China is pressuring Takaichi to withdraw the remark, but the Japanese government, while concerned about economic fallout, says it will watch the situation for now. Some predict that the chill in ties and negative economic effects could drag on.

Kyodo News reported on the 16th that after China’s Foreign Ministry advised via social media on the 14th to refrain from visiting Japan, posts began appearing on Chinese social media such as “I decided not to go to Japan” and “I will not buy Japanese products.” The Mainichi Shimbun also reported that posts echoing their own Foreign Ministry’s advisory, such as “Stay away from Japan,” are appearing on Chinese social media. In addition, three Chinese airlines announced they would refund or change tickets to Japan free of charge.

Kyodo News said these developments aim to protest Takaichi’s remark and predicted that if cancellations of trips to Japan spread, Japan’s tourism industry would be hit. Kyodo also reported concerns about stagnation in business and exchanges.

On the Chinese side, the pressure has been ratcheting up daily since Takaichi’s remark. The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that on the 16th China’s Ministry of Education issued a notice urging careful consideration before studying in Japan. The ministry explained, “Public safety in Japan is unstable, and crimes targeting Chinese nationals are occurring frequently.” An SNS account affiliated with state-run China Central Television (CCTV), ‘Wei Yuan Tantian,’ posted on the 15th that the Chinese government has recently been using expressions such as “All consequences (bad consequences) must be borne by Japan” and “(China) will surely launch a frontal attack,” adding, “These expressions signal that China has already completed preparations for a substantive counterattack.”

By contrast, the Japanese government is refraining from a tit-for-tat response. Kyodo News reported that the government is agonizing over China’s escalating backlash, with an official at the Prime Minister’s Office expressing concern: “This is a crossroads. If things become further entangled, it could spill over into economic retaliation.”

Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara, the government’s spokesperson, said of the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s advisory to refrain from visiting Japan, “It does not correspond to Japan’s understanding. Because there are differences in position, multilayered communication between Japan and China is important.” Takayuki Kobayashi, the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s Policy Research Council chair, said, “We must respond calmly,” adding, “We will continue dialogue and strive to make bilateral relations constructive and stable.”

Jiji Press reported that the outlook for working-level talks between Japan and China on agricultural and seafood products has become uncertain, with a Japanese government official warning, “The next step will be economic measures.” NHK reported that within the Japanese government there are views that a decline in Chinese tourists could affect Japan’s tourism industry, as well as views that this could be an opportunity to reconsider how to deal with China going forward.

However, the likelihood that Takaichi will retract the remark is low. If she did, she could lose support among conservatives, and China might make even more far-reaching demands.

The Asahi Shimbun reported that within the Japanese government there are also predictions that, because this dispute is intertwined with the Taiwan issue, which China attaches great importance to, it could continue for years in the worst case. The Asahi explained, “If Japan and China take even tougher measures, a deterioration of relations like that surrounding the Senkaku (Diaoyu in Chinese) Islands in 2012, called the worst since normalization of diplomatic ties, could recur.” At that time, when Japan announced the nationalization of the Senkaku Islands, China saw fierce anti-Japanese protests and a boycott of Japanese products.

The Japanese government plans to seek talks with the Chinese side at the Group of 20 (G20) summit later this month, but it is difficult to predict whether a meeting will take place. Kyodo News reported that Prime Minister Takaichi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang will attend the G20 summit to be held in South Africa on the 2223, but whether they will hold talks is uncertain. The Takaichi administration lacks a heavyweight figure to communicate with China, making it hard to foresee smooth dialogue. The departure of Komeito, which had worked to improve ties with China, from the ruling coalition is another factor complicating Sino-Japanese communication.