President Moon Jae-in and Minister for Trade Yoo Myung-hee take a photo after signing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) agreement at Cheongwadae on November 15. Cheongwadae press photographers

The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), including China, was formed on November 15, and the Joe Biden administration, which will launch next January, is expected to put the pressure on China and keep Beijing in check by rejoining the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
For the time being, the Biden administration is expected to concentrate on resolving domestic issues, such as creating jobs and overcoming the economic recession triggered by COVID-19, but if Washington decides to strengthen protectionism fueling the trade conflicts with China, South Korea may be forced to choose sides.
The Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, which is an economic bloc of countries in Asia and the Pacific--similar to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership--started with the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) formed in 2016. The Trans-Pacific Partnership, a U.S.-led initiative to keep China in check, was a free trade agreement (FTA) involving twelve countries including Japan and Australia.
Joe Biden, who was the vice president in the Barack Obama administration, actively supported the TPP. But President Donald Trump opted for U.S.-centered trade protectionism and concentrated on bilateral trade agreements. So shortly after his inauguration in January 2017, he declared to withdraw from the TPP, and the remaining countries centered on Japan renamed the agreement as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Now that the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership has been formed, the U.S. is likely to rejoin the CPTPP or engage in a multilateral response through the World Trade Organization (WTO). On November 6, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy (KIEP) predicted, “President-elect Biden did not express his thoughts to rejoin the CPTPP, but is likely to use the CPTPP as a means to restrain the influence of China, a key country in the RCEP, in the Asia-Pacific region and to restore a multilateral trade system centered on the U.S.”
Many experts also expect the U.S. to strengthen the conflict resolution procedures of the World Trade Organization and jointly respond to unfair practices, such as the Chinese government’s support of state-run corporations.
If the Biden administration decides to rejoin the CPTPP, it is likely to ask South Korea to join as well. Kim So-young, a professor of economics at Seoul National University said, “China will try to expand its influence by diversifying trade channels through the RCEP, and the U.S., which has criticized China’s unfair trade practices, will try to keep China in check by restoring multilateralism with allies by rejoining the CPTPP.” She further explained, “If conflicts between the U.S. and China intensify, South Korea is likely to receive requests from both countries for its participation or agreement.”
However, some experts argue that now is not the time to take sides. Bae Chan-kwon, director of trade at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy said, “Given that key U.S. allies, such as Japan and Australia, are in the RCEP and that there are also many developing countries as well as advanced countries in the RCEP, it doesn’t seem likely for the U.S. to take this too seriously.” He added, “At present, easing the burden on export companies concerning issues stressed by Biden, such as labor and the environment, is more urgent than choosing sides.”
Joo Won, director of economic research at Hyundai Research Institute said, “For South Korea, which is highly dependent on exports, joining a massive economic bloc, such as the RCEP or the CPTPP, is an important task,” and added, “If we are forced to choose between the U.S. and China, we need to take a political and diplomatic approach to solve the problem.”
This day, Chinese Premier, Li Keqiang assessed the RCEP as a free trade zone with the largest participating population in the world, the most diverse membership and the greatest development potential.”