As the aftermath of the North Korea-Russia treaty spills over into the South Korea-Russia conflict, North Korea is likely to send additional filth balloons this week to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula. It is expected that the first South Korea-U.S.-Japan trilateral multidomain military exercise, which will be held this week, will be used as a justification for the early implementation of the North Korea-Russia treaty.

The South Korean military authorities remained on high alert on June 23, eyeing the possibility of North Korea sending off a fourth round of filth balloons this week. "They have done what we told them not to do again, so it's natural that we will have something to do that we don't have to do," Kim Yo-jong, the sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, said on 21st. She was referring to the anti-North Korea leaflets sent by a North Korean defector group on the 20th. If North Korea dumps additional trash balloons, the South Korean military is expected to respond with measures, such as the resumption of loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts to the North.

Earlier, North Korea sent the balloons three times last month, on May 28-29, June 1-2, and 8-9. On June 4, the South Korean government declared the complete suspension of "September 19 Military Agreement,” and on the 9th, it resumed loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts to the North. North Korea has since refrained from responding in kind, which some have interpreted as the North took Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Pyongyang on the 19th into consideration. Now that the North Korea-Russia talks have concluded, the North’s direct provocations are likely to resume.

South Korea, the U.S. and Japan are holding the "Freedom Edge" drill this week, which involves maritime, underwater, air, and cyber operations. For the drill, the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the Aegis-equipped destroyer USS Halsey, and the USS Daniel Inouye arrived at a naval base in Busan on the 22th. North Korea is expected to escalate tensions on the peninsula by issuing a statement condemning the drill.

The South Korean military is expected to conduct artillery drills and other exercises near the border before and after June 25, the date of the Korean War.

North Korea is holding the 8th Plenum of the 10th Workers' Party Central Committee this week, which concludes the first half of the year. The meeting is expected to politicize the North Korea-Russia treaty and then hold a Supreme People's Assembly in the near future to reflect the treaty's military cooperation in the constitution and other laws.

"The physical implementation of the treaty, such as joint North Korea-Russia drills, will not be possible until the end of the year," said Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification. "Until then, there is a risk that North Korea’s filth balloons and South Korea’s countermeasures will lead to a 'belligerent situation’ between the two."