Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, has taken an overwhelming lead in a survey of preferences for the next president. He has been consolidating his “solo system as the next presidential candidate” in the wake of the December 3 emergency martial law incident and the impeachment trial of President Yoon Suk-yeol.

A challenge for Lee is that people in their 20s and the middle class, who showed their presence during the process of passing the impeachment motion, are still expressing doubts about Lee. The mounting controversy over the delay in Lee’s trials from the ruling party is another challenge.

In the “Preference for Future Political Leaders” survey (±3.1 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence level with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points) conducted by Korea Gallup from December 17 to 19 among 1,000 people aged 18 and older, Lee topped the poll with 37 percent. This is his highest score since October 2021 and up 8 percentage points from two weeks ago.

Lee's competitors fared poorly. Former People Power Partyleader Han Dong-hoon and Daegu Mayor Hong Jun-pyofollowed Lee with 5 percent each. Han's support dropped 6 percentage points from two weeks ago, widening the gap with Lee to 32 percentage points.

The Democratic Party of Korea has started to manage Lee's dominance.

“We've been telling our members to refrain from talking about the presidential election at every opportunity,” a member of the Democratic leadership told reporters on December 22. The polling details also show that the party is trying to figure out how to overcome Lee's limitations.

Lee received only 21 percent support from respondents aged 18 to 29 in the survey. This is the lowest of any age group, along with those aged 70 or older (21 percent), who have a strong conservative base. More than half (54 percent) of the respondents from18 to 29 years old withheld their opinion. This could be an indication that many in their 20s, who were at the forefront of the impeachment rallies, do not yet trust Lee as the next presidential frontrunner, apart from the judgment of President Yoon.

Lee received 39 percent support from those in the middle class, who are often targeted by so-called “right-click” measures of the DPK, such as abolishing the financial investment income tax and delaying the taxation of virtual assets. Thirty-four percent of the respondents withheld their opinions. It's also troubling that Lee's personal approval rating (37 percent) is more than 10 percentage points lower than that of DPK’s. (48 percent).

Lee is facing intense attacks from the PPP at a time when the possibility of an early presidential election has increased. Negative campaigning is also likely to intensify. The PPP has recently accused Lee of deliberately delaying the trial by refusing to receive a notice of receipt of litigation records related to the Public Official Election Act.