Lee Jae-myung, a contender in the Democratic Party of Korea (DPK)'s primary for the presidential election on June 3, has surpassed the 50 percent threshold in a recent poll on presidential suitability, according to survey results released on April 21. Following the martial law crisis, Lee’s approval ratings had remained in the 30 to 40 percent range, but this latest surge is seen as a sign of his growing dominance. His gains are largely attributed to rising support in the region consisting of Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province and consolidation among progressive voters.

In a survey conducted by polling agency Realmeter, commissioned by Energy Economic News, from April 16 to 18, 1,504 eligible voters nationwide were asked who they believe is most suitable as the next president (sampling error ±2.5 percentage points, 95 percent confidence level). Lee received 50.2 percent, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous week. This is the first time he has broken the 50 percent mark in a Realmeter poll.

Lee is 38 percentage points ahead of the second-place candidate, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party (12.2 percent), followed by Han Dong-hoon (8.5 percent), Hong Joon-pyo (7.5 percent), Na Kyung-won (4 percent), and Ahn Cheol-soo (3.7 percent) of the People Power Party.

Other polling agencies have also confirmed Lee’s upward momentum. In the National Barometer Survey (NBS), conducted jointly by Embrain Public, KSTAT Research, Korea Research, and Hankook Research, Lee’s approval rating for presidential suitability remained in the low 30 percent range throughout March but rose to 39 percent in the third week of April. Similarly, in Gallup Korea’s prospective presidential candidate survey, Lee’s support hovered in the low to mid-30 percent range throughout March before rising to 38 percent in the third week of April.

Regionally, the surge in the region consisting of Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province is considered a key driver of Lee’s rising support. According to Realmeter, support for Lee in the region increased from 38.8 percent in the third week of March to 49.6 percent in the latest poll, a jump of more than 10 percentage points in just one month. In Daejeon, Sejong, and the Chungcheong region, his support climbed 3.9 percentage points to 49.2 percent. In the NBS survey conducted in the third week of April, Lee’s approval rose to 27 percent in the region of Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province and 21 percent in the region of Daegu and North Gyeongsang Province, up 10 and 13 percentage points from the previous week, respectively.

Lee’s camp attributes the boost to pledges made during the primary campaign, including the development of a megacity of Busan, Ulsan, and South Gyeongsang Province, relocating the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries to Busan, and completing the administrative capital project in Sejong.

Ideologically, consolidation among progressive voters also played a significant role. In the latest Realmeter poll, 83.5 percent of progressive respondents supported Lee, a 4.9 percentage point increase from a month ago (78.6 percent). In the NBS survey, support among progressives rose by 5 percentage points to 69 percent. Support among centrists also rose by 10 percentage points to 27 percent.

Lee’s camp said, “Progressive voters’ strong desire for a change in government is translating into growing support for Lee.”

A pro-Lee lawmaker said, “This trend suggests that the negative image of Lee, often emphasized by conservatives, may not be as significant as believed. As Lee appeals to a broad range of voters through his economic policies, we expect his support to continue rising.”

Both the NBS and Gallup Korea surveys are conducted weekly via telephone interviews with 1,000 to 1,001 respondents nationwide, with a margin of error of ±3.1 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level.