Earlier this month, the Heunghae branch of the National Agricultural Cooperative Federation (Nonghyup) in Pohang, North Gyeongsang Province, exported 4 tons of “Yeongilchon Rice,” Pohang’s local brand, to Japan. This marks the second rice export from Pohang to Japan, following last month’s 5-ton shipment by the Daepoong Agricultural Cooperative. Nonghyup’s Heunghae branch recently signed an additional export contract to supply 60 tons of rice to Japan.

Baek Kang-seok, head of Nonghyup’s Heunghae branch, said on June 17, “Considering the growing volume of exports, this trend could continue,” adding, “If demand increases through exports, rice prices may rise as well, and local farmers have high hopes.”

Driven by a sharp rise in Japanese rice prices this year, Korean rice exports to Japan are on track to reach an all-time high. At the current pace, total exports are expected to surpass 1,000 tons by the end of the year.

Japan’s recent rice shortages, caused by its rice production reduction policy, are expected to persist for a while. However, whether the export growth will continue through the second half of the year remains uncertain, as the Japanese government has begun releasing rice from its national reserves.

According to the Nonghyup, 379 tons of Korean rice have been shipped to Japan so far this year, and as of June 9, a total of 800 tons have been contracted for export. This is the highest volume since the statistics were compiled first in 1990.

A major factor behind this surge is the steep increase in Japanese rice prices, the highest in three decades. According to Japan’s Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, the average price of a 5-killogram bag of rice between May 26 and June 1 was 4,223 yen (approximately 40,000 Korean won), nearly double the price a year ago of 2,136 yen. As a result, even Korean rice, which previously had poor price competitiveness due to a 3,400 won per kilogram tariff, is now becoming more appealing to Japanese consumers.

Optimism is growing that rice exports to Japan may exceed 1,000 tons this year. However, recent Japanese government’s actions to release rice from reserves have caused Japanese rice prices to trend downward over the past three weeks, introducing some uncertainty.

An official from the Nonghyup said, “If Japan is unable to meet domestic demand and resorts to emergency imports, export volumes could increase,” but added, “Since rice prices in Japan have been declining for the past three weeks, we’ll have to watch how the situation unfolds.”

The continuation of Korea’s strong rice export performance will largely depend on Japan’s future rice production policies.

Kim Dae-hyun, a researcher at the Nonghyup Future Strategy Research Institute, analyzed the situation in a recent report titled “Background and Implications of the Sharp Rise in Japanese Rice Prices.” He explained that the Japanese government’s reduction in rice cultivation areas significantly decreased production, while consumption did not decline at the same rate. For the past three years, demand has outpaced supply, with the gap steadily widening. To compensate, Japan has been importing rice from Korea, Taiwan, and other countries.

Japan is now reconsidering its rice reduction policy and looking to increase production. In the short term, the Japanese government aims to lower prices by releasing reserve rice, and in the long term, to stabilize the market through increased domestic production. However, it remains uncertain whether this will fully resolve the supply-demand imbalance. Researcher Kim said, “While Japanese rice production is expected to increase this year, improving the imbalance, authorities don’t necessarily want prices to return to previous levels.” He added that “ongoing discussions about a sustainable price point could significantly impact the future of Korean rice exports.”

An official from the Nonghyup said, “Even if Japan immediately increases rice production, the shortage could persist in the long term,” adding, “What is meaningful is that we have already established export channels, particularly in areas with large Korean expatriate communities, which gives us a foothold for future exports if the market fluctuates.” Researcher Kim also said, “Although a reduction in rice production for food consumption is inevitable due to declining domestic demand, we must be cautious about making drastic cuts, as climate change and other factors increase the risk of supply-demand imbalances.” He added that even if rice cultivation areas are reduced, attention should be given to growing feed rice as a way to maintain production resilience.