Since Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi mentioned the possibility of Self-Defense Forces involvement in the event of a Taiwan contingency, China-Japan relations have cooled rapidly. China has moved beyond diplomatic warnings to tangible measures such as advisories to refrain from travel to and study in Japan and shows of force around the Senkaku Islands (Chinese name Diaoyudao).

The Chinese government issued successive advisories to refrain from travel to and study in Japan. In a notice on its website on the 16th, the Ministry of Education said, "Japan has recently been experiencing social unrest, and crimes targeting Chinese nationals are surging," and advised, "Plan study in Japan with caution."

Earlier, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs also warned in a notice on the 14th that "a Japanese leader made blatantly provocative remarks regarding the Taiwan issue, seriously worsening the atmosphere for people-to-people exchanges between China and Japan," and that "as a result, there are major risks to the lives and safety of Chinese nationals in Japan; exercise caution about visiting Japan in the near term."

Six Chinese airlines, including Air China, announced that in line with government policy they would waive fees for cancellations and changes of already purchased tickets to Japan through the end of the year.

China's advisory to refrain from travel to and study in Japan came a week after Prime Minister Takaichi said Japan could invoke the right of collective self-defense in the event of a Taiwan contingency. Despite Beijing's daily, strongly worded criticism, the Japanese government did not retract the remarks, leading China to take steps with economic impact and assert itself.

According to the Japan National Tourism Organization, about 7.48 million Chinese visitors came to Japan from January to September this year. According to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology, as of June last year there were about 134,000 Chinese students in Japan. The Asahi Shimbun reported that "the situation has developed to a stage where it could spread to tangible effects such as reduced economic and tourism exchanges." Analysts say it recalls the 2012 sovereignty dispute over the Senkaku Islands, when China-Japan relations sank to a postwar low.

China also staged shows of force. The China Coast Guard (CCG) 1307 formation said on the 16th that it "patrolled the territorial waters of Diaoyudao on the 14th." A CCTV-affiliated social media account, "Weiyuantantian," citing remarks by Xiang Haoyu of the China Institute of International Studies, said the Chinese government has recently used the phrase that it will "definitely deliver a frontal attack" against Japan, adding that "frontal attack" carries military implications.

The PLA Daily, the official newspaper of the People's Liberation Army, quoted Xu Yongzhi of the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations as warning that "intervening in the Taiwan issue is a path to catastrophe."

The Yomiuri Shimbun analyzed that China's hard-line response stems from the judgment that Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks damaged Chinese President Xi Jinping's face. It noted that immediately after the prime minister's meeting with Xi, China had rolled out friendly steps such as extending visa-free entry for tourists and resuming imports of Japanese seafood, yet Japan made sensitive Taiwan-related comments. The fact that this year marks the symbolic 80th anniversary of the end of Japan's occupation of Taiwan and victory in the Anti-Japanese War is also cited as a factor hardening China's response.

Japan appears unlikely to retract Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks. Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara said on the 15th that "given the differences in positions between China and Japan, multi-layered communication between the two countries is important." The Nikkei reported that on the sidelines of the Group of 20 (G20) summit to be held in South Africa on the 22nd, a meeting between Prime Minister Takaichi and Chinese Premier Li Qiang is likely to be sought.

However, the prevailing view is that the chances of it materializing are unclear. China is demanding the retraction of Prime Minister Takaichi's remarks as a precondition for dialogue, and the retaliatory steps have also worsened the environment for talks. Having come to power on a platform of a "strong Japan," the prime minister would face the political burden of inevitable support-base defections if the remarks were withdrawn under Chinese pressure.

The Mainichi Shimbun reported that the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party are moving to designate Xue Jian, China's consul general in Osaka, as persona non grata and demand his expulsion from the country, after he used extreme expressions criticizing Prime Minister Takaichi such as "road of death" and "I will cut your filthy neck." The paper expressed concern that "if this vicious cycle continues, Japan-China relations could drift amid mutual distrust." The Asahi Shimbun also reported that "the confrontation could be prolonged."