Lockheed Martin’s F-35 fighter has emerged as a central focus of diplomacy among the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. Ahead of a White House meeting on the 18th (local time) between U.S. President Donald Trump and Saudi Arabia’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Israel has demanded normalization of diplomatic relations between itself and Saudi Arabia as a condition for Saudi Arabia to purchase the F-35.

The U.S. online outlet Axios reported on the 15th, citing an Israeli official, that the Israeli government recently conveyed to the Trump administration the view that ‘if F-35s are to be sold to Saudi Arabia, normalization of relations with Israel must be a precondition’. In other words, the F-35 sale should be used as leverage to normalize diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Israel wants to sign an Abraham Accord (an agreement to normalize relations between Israel and Arab states) with Saudi Arabia, the leader of Sunni Islam, to isolate Shiite Iran. In September 2020, under U.S. mediation, Israel separately signed the Abraham Accords with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain.

In its meeting with Crown Prince bin Salman, the Trump administration appears likely to address the issue of selling weapons such as the F-35 to Saudi Arabia, along with the question of Saudi participation in the Abraham Accords, regarded as the greatest diplomatic achievement of its first term. On the 14th, President Trump said, “I hope Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords soon,” and indicated that he is considering arms deals with Saudi Arabia, including the F-35.

The F-35 is a state-of-the-art fighter equipped with fifth-generation stealth technology, and in the Middle East, only Israel possesses it. If the United States sells F-35s to Saudi Arabia, it would mean discarding the policy that the United States and Israel have maintained for decades in the Middle East, guaranteeing Israel’s ‘qualitative military edge’ (QME). This is the principle that military equipment provided by the United States to Israel must always be more advanced than weapons sold to neighboring Arab states.

By agreeing to U.S. sales of the F-35 and thereby ceding regional military superiority to Saudi Arabia, Israel wants Saudi Arabia to withdraw its demand for recognition of a Palestinian state. Saudi Arabia is demanding, as a condition for concluding an Abraham Accord, that Israel agree to recognition of a Palestinian state and a roadmap for its establishment, but Israel is not accepting this.

The progressive Israeli outlet Haaretz pointed out, “Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel knows well that the moment he makes even a small concession on the Palestinian issue, his coalition government could collapse,” adding, “For Netanyahu, giving up Israel’s QME and allowing approval for F-35 sales to Arab states is far easier than uttering the word ‘Palestinian’.”

However, despite Israel’s willingness to concede on QME, officials in the Trump administration assessed that Saudi Arabia is unlikely to back down from its demand for recognition of a Palestinian state at this meeting. The AP projected that it would be difficult for President Trump to persuade Crown Prince bin Salman in the short term.