The Donald Trump administration has decided to designate the Venezuelan criminal organization ‘Cartel de los Soles’ (Soles) as a foreign terrorist organization (FTO). It identified Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his close associates as the leadership of the cartel. With tensions peaking amid successive sinkings of Venezuelan vessels by the U.S. military and a buildup of regional forces, some interpret this as Washington moving to build justification to target President Maduro.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said in a statement on the 16th (local time) that the administration plans to designate Soles as an FTO starting on the 24th. Secretary Rubio said, “Soles is led by senior officials who, including President Maduro, have corrupted Venezuela’s military and intelligence services and the legislative and judicial branches,” adding, “Neither Maduro nor his associates represent Venezuela’s legitimate government.”

The statement was issued shortly after the U.S. military said the world’s largest Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group had entered the Caribbean near Venezuela to join the counternarcotics operation ‘Southern Spear’. With the Ford strike group deployed, U.S. forces stationed in the Caribbean have surpassed 12,000 troops, the largest since the 1989 U.S. invasion of Panama, AP reported.

U.S. Southern Command the same day announced it had sunk a vessel in the eastern Pacific suspected of transporting illegal drugs, killing three narco-terrorists. Since the United States designated the Venezuelan drug cartel as a terrorist group, this marked the 21st time it has labeled a Venezuelan vessel a ‘drug-running boat’ and attacked it, with at least 83 people killed.

As Washington ratchets up maximum military pressure on Venezuela and pairs it with the FTO designation of Soles, analysts say the launch of a U.S. military operation to overturn the Maduro government may be imminent. The BBC noted, “Identifying Maduro as a drug trafficker appears to be a means for the United States to justify targeting Maduro and his inner circle.”

Earlier, the New York Times reported that as the Trump administration prepared various military options for Venezuela, it was seeking a legal basis to attack President Maduro that would sidestep criticisms of lacking congressional approval or violating international law, and that a scenario naming Maduro as the central figure of Soles was anticipated. The idea is that if an attack on the Maduro regime is framed as an ‘attack on a terrorist organization’, legal disputes could be avoided.

However, President Trump told reporters that day, “We could talk with Maduro,” leaving room for negotiations. President Trump said, “They want talks with the United States. I talk with anyone,” adding, “We will see how it goes.”

Experts believe that if President Trump ousts President Maduro, a military coup could break out in Venezuela and another dictator could emerge. Juan Gonzalez, a senior fellow at Georgetown University’s Americas Institute, told CNN, “Someone else backed by the military could take power instead of the opposition.”

In the absence of President Maduro, who has served as a counterweight between the military and the ruling party and bureaucracy, competition between the two forces could intensify, potentially triggering chaos close to civil war. A Western diplomat who served in Venezuela for years said, “Like it or not, Maduro is a guarantor of balance,” adding, “If he leaves, there will be no one to maintain the status quo.”

As U.S. pressure continues to mount, President Maduro posted a 1 minute and 13 second video on his TikTok account that shows him singing John Lennon’s “Imagine” with supporters. Shouting, “Peace, peace, peace. As John Lennon always said, do everything for peace,” he then sang the song. By singing a famous pop song themed on peace, he appeared to indirectly criticize U.S. pressure.

In a subsequent speech, he called it “an anthem that inspires every generation and every era,” and said, “I appeal to the American people that there must never be eternal war in the Caribbean and South America.”