Last year, the cumulative rise in Seoul apartment prices came to a record 8.71%. Nationwide, prices rose only 1%, and excluding Seoul, Gyeonggi, and Incheon, they fell by about 1%. The concentration in Seoul and the greater capital region has intensified. Outlooks say Seoul home prices are likely to keep rising this year as well. The government plans to unveil additional supply measures early in the year.

On the 1st, the Korea Real Estate Board announced that in the fifth week of last month (as of the 29th), Seoul apartment prices rose 0.21%. The magnitude of the increase was the same as the previous week. This brought the cumulative annual rise in Seoul apartment prices, based on the weekly survey, to 8.71%, the highest yearly gain since 2012, when the Board began compiling weekly statistics.

Last year, Seoul apartment prices rose for 47 consecutive weeks starting from the first week of February. In October, when the 10·15 measures were announced, the weekly rise spiked to as high as 0.5%, but since November the rate moved sideways at around 0.17%~0.21%. The Board explained, “Amid an overall decline in transaction volume, localized transactions at higher prices were concluded mainly for complexes with development expectations and for some key complexes with favorable residential conditions.”

The previous peak for the annual cumulative rise in Seoul apartment prices (weekly survey basis) was 8.11% in 2015 under the Park Geun-hye administration. The rate then eased, before climbing again under the Moon Jae-in administration in 2018 (6.73%) and 2021 (6.58%), and plunging in 2022, down 7.2%. In 2024, it turned upward again, rising 4.5%.

Last year, the uptrend in home prices was concentrated in Seoul. While Seoul apartment prices rose 8.71%, the nationwide cumulative rise was 1.02%, and the capital region came to 3.29%. Areas outside the capital region retreated 1.13%. Compared with 2021, when Seoul apartment prices rose 6.58% while the nationwide figure climbed 13.25% and the capital region 16.28%, the concentration in Seoul appears to have intensified in just a few years.

The areas with the highest annual cumulative gains last year were the three Gangnam districts and nearby areas. In Seoul, Songpa District rose 20.92% for the largest increase nationwide. Next were Gwacheon in Gyeonggi (20.46%), Seongdong District in Seoul (19.12%), Bundang District of Seongnam in Gyeonggi (19.10%), Mapo District in Seoul (14.26%), Seocho District (14.11%), Gangnam District (13.59%), and Yongsan District (13.21%). The uptrend was concentrated in the three Gangnam districts and adjacent capital region·Han River belt areas.

However, because the survey samples differ somewhat between the weekly and monthly statistics, the annual rise based on the monthly series may vary somewhat.

Experts see a high likelihood that the uptrend in Seoul apartment prices will continue this year. The number of units scheduled for occupancy in Seoul is around 29,000 this year, about half of last year, and market liquidity remains ample. However, with loan regulations and the land transaction permit system still in place, the pace of increase is expected to be lower than last year.

Ham Young-jin, head of Woori Bank Real Estate Research Lab, said, “Driven by increased liquidity and tight supply, the rise in home prices centered on Seoul and the capital region will continue this year,” adding, “Government regulations are limiting some speculative extra demand, but side effects such as listings being locked up are also emerging, making them insufficient to stop the uptrend in prices.”

Park Won-gap, senior real estate expert at KB Kookmin Bank, also forecast, “The uptrend in home prices will continue, but it is likely to slow versus last year due to loan regulations and the land transaction permit system,” adding, “We are likely to see a situation where volumes are low but high prices persist.”

The government has signaled an announcement of additional housing supply measures early in the year to stabilize the market. The announcement was initially slated for the end of last year, but the timing has been delayed as consultations with local government heads over supply plans continue.