Korea received a lower assessment in Group A of the 2026 World Cup in North and Central America than the European play-off winner, whose place in the finals is not yet confirmed. In the odds for finishing first in the group offered by major bookmakers, Korea was third at 5.00. The host Mexico (2.10) led the market, and Korea also trailed the winner of European play-off Path D (2.75). Bookmakers see whichever of Denmark, Czech Republic, Ireland, or North Macedonia advances as more likely than Korea to top the group.

This comes from football data outlet Squawka, which analyzed odds from Sky Bet, Bet365, and BoyleSports. Lower odds indicate a higher probability of the outcome. If you stake 10,000 won and Mexico win the group, you receive 21,000 won back, whereas a Korea group win returns 50,000 won.

European play-off Path D, which will decide the Group A qualifier, contains Denmark at FIFA ranking 21, Czech Republic at 43, Ireland at 59, and North Macedonia at 66. Among them, Denmark is seen as the most likely survivor. Given Korea at FIFA ranking 22, that is a manageable opponent. However, the betting market appears to rate more highly the tactical completeness and physical profile of mid-tier European sides such as Denmark.

Even among Asian nations, Korea did not receive the highest rating. Japan ranked 16th overall with 101.00 to win the World Cup, while Korea was 34th at 501.00.

Squawka analyzed that “the perception that this squad is not the strongest among Korea World Cup teams has been reflected in the odds”. It argued that key players such as Son Heung-min (34·LAFC) and Lee Jae-sung (34·Mainz) are entering the latter stages of their careers, while the new generation is not yet proven. It also cited, except for 2002 on home soil since 1986, persistent defensive frailty, and the fact that Korean managers have won only 2 of 22 matches, as reasons for the low valuation.

However, the outlet rated Korea highly in the specific context of Group A. It described Korea as “the true dark horse of Group A, and the biggest threat to Mexico regardless of the final make up”. If Denmark advance, a three way battle among Mexico·Denmark·Korea is expected, and with little gap in strength, Korea also has a chance.

Mexico will play all three group matches at home under host nation privileges. The meeting with Korea on June 19 will be held at Estadio Akron in Guadalajara. Mexico, at FIFA ranking 16, sit above Korea and are a North and Central American power that lifted the 2025 CONCACAF Gold Cup.

The probability for Korea to reach the round of 32 was rated higher than its price to finish first in the group. At the expanded 2026 World Cup with 48 teams, the top 1·2 in each group plus the eight best third placed teams across 12 groups advance to the round of 32. The chance for Korea to make the round of 32 was estimated at about 69 percent. Even a record of one win, one draw, and one loss from three matches could place Korea among the higher third place finishers and send it through.

According to the outlet, the 3-4-3 used by coach Hong Myung-bo can flexibly shift between defense and attack depending on the situation. The explosive potential of the attacking trio of Son Heung-min, Lee Kang-in (25·Paris Saint-Germain), and Hwang Hee-chan (30·Wolverhampton) was also picked as a strength.

Betting odds are not an absolute evaluation of strength. Korea has a record of defying expectations, such as reaching the 2002 World Cup semifinals and beating Germany, then the world number one side, in the 2018 group stage. Attention now turns to whether the Korea national team under Hong Myung-bo can overturn the betting market low valuation on the pitch.