[Weekly Kyunghyang] On January 22, Jung Cheong-rae, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, made a surprise proposal to merge with the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. The unexpected overture has sparked heated debate across the broader pro-government camp including the Democratic Party, the Innovation Party, and the Blue House over possible scenarios and whether to support or oppose it.

Although it drew little public attention, before the Democratic PartyInnovation Party merger talks, there had been behind-the-scenes discussions on a merger between the Innovation Party and the Social Democratic Party. According to accounts, the Innovation Party initiated the proposal, and the Social Democratic Party held talks between the two parties’ leaderships on the condition that ‘Cho Kuk’ be removed from the party name.

A Social Democratic Party official who took part in the negotiations said, “The response we received to the request to revise the party name was that it seemed possible only ‘after the local elections.’” It was leader Cho Kuk who gave the answer that changing the party name would be difficult.

“Leader Cho appeared on a YouTube channel and stated his position. He said brand experts had advised that the party name should not be changed now. Because it takes about a year and a half for the public to recognize a new party name, he said it cannot be changed ahead of the local elections. He himself mentioned that if ‘Cho Kuk’ is removed from the name, people would confuse the Reform New Party with the Innovation Party.”

In response, Representative Shin Jang-sik, who was the negotiator on the Innovation Party side, said, “These talks proceeded separately from those with the Democratic Party,” adding that the suspension was “due to internal circumstances within the Social Democratic Party, as far as I know.”

Private small-merger talks before the Democratic Party merger proposal

Leader Jung Cheong-rae’s merger proposal came out abruptly. Criticism immediately emerged from Supreme Council members who make up the party leadership. Supreme Council members Lee Eon-ju, Hwang Myung-seon, and Kang Deuk-gu held a press conference demanding an apology, saying, “The Jung Cheong-rae-style dogmatism must end now.” Was the merger his own intention?

Woo Sang-ho, former Senior Presidential Secretary for Political Affairs, appeared on a current affairs radio program on January 27 and said, “There was a shared understanding between the Blue House, leader Cho Kuk, and leader Jung Cheong-rae on merging the two parties,” adding that he had served as a bridge while he was the senior secretary. He resigned from the post on January 18, four days before Jung made the merger proposal.

“Upon checking, it was true that there was some degree of consensus on a merger, but there was no signal from the Blue House to do it before the local elections.”

So said Seo Yong-ju, head of the Maek Politics and Society Research Institute. He argued that the timing of the announcement was purely a judgment by Jung. He said he was pessimistic about the effect of a merger because of practical difficulties.

“The Innovation Party also has local committees everywhere except North Chungcheong Province. Pre-candidate registration for the local elections begins on February 21, and candidate eligibility screening must take place before that. If they merge, they will have to redo eligibility screening belatedly; I do not know whether the proposal took such matters into account.”

He added, “The more the leadership pushes ahead, the more it will only add to the confusion,” and, “The original intent would have been for the progressive camp to unite solidly for a landslide victory, yet many party members and Democratic Party lawmakers think, ‘It only stirs confusion, so I do not know why they are doing it.’”

“A merger seems likely, but the process will not be smooth. In the worst case, they may form an electoral alliance for the vote and carry out a formal merger after the local elections. If the merger falls through, both sides only end up hurt.”

So said Kim Neung-gu, CEO of PoliNews. He argued that the merger proposal was ‘Jung Cheong-rae’s gambit.’

“As a result of the by-election for Supreme Council members, the gap between the pro-Jung (pro-Jung Cheong-rae) and pro-Myung (pro-Lee Jae Myung) factions inside the party narrowed from 25 percentage points to 8 percentage points. He judged that to be the moment to shake up the board. The fact that the integration proposal came on the festive day when the KOSPI index crossed the 5,000 mark was a mix of coincidence and inevitability.”

He said that from the standpoint of President Lee Jae Myung, now is not the right time for a merger.

“The lines pursued by leaders Jung and Cho, who have the next presidency in mind, and President Lee inevitably differ. They are bound to clash on various issues such as prosecutorial reform and nuclear power. For example, the Innovation Party’s stance on prosecutrial reform is a hard line. For President Lee, differentiation is only necessary ahead of the 2028 general election, but from the perspective of leaders Jung and Cho, differentiation is needed now. The most important contest for victory in the local elections is the Seoul mayoral race. Leader Cho will be called up as the Democratic Party candidate.”

Eom Kyung-young, head of the Zeitgeist Research Institute, analyzed, “A political party survives on identity and needs a support base in particular age groups, regions, or ideologies, but the biggest dilemma for the Innovation Party is that its base is not much different from the Democratic Party’s,” adding, “A configuration of CheongCho (Jung Cheong-rae and Cho Kuk) versus MyungKim (Lee Jae Myung and Kim Min-seok) is just taking shape.” He said the conflict unleashed by the current merger debate is likely to surface after the local elections over the party leadership election and nominations for the next general election.

“The Innovation Party’s dilemma was also considerable in arriving at talks of integration. Given the recent trend of political polarization, there is no sign of an easy shift to a multi-party system. Although it produced remarkable results in the 2024 general election, that is not sustainable. From the perspective of leaders Jung and Cho, they need to prepare for ‘post-Lee Jae Myung,’ and once the local elections are over, it will be the second year in office. They judged that if they do not prepare now, they could miss their chance.”

Self-styled politics by Jung Cheong-rae aiming at postLee Jae Myung?

“According to a metaphor leader Cho often uses, the Innovation Party was an icebreaker. By comparison, the Democratic Party is a giant aircraft carrier. Until now, the two vessels played their respective roles in a fleet called the progressive camp, but a merger means combining them into a single ship. The front is an icebreaker and the rear an aircraft carrier; call it an ‘icebreaker-carrier.’ Could such a ship really perform its role?”

So said political commentator Gong Hee-jun.

“Usually, political realignments are attempted by the disadvantaged side to shake up the board, but while the People Power Party was in disarray, the ruling camp was not in an unfavorable situation. There are cases where a frontrunner shakes up the board for bold innovation, but what leader Jung is attempting now is simply shaking the board. It can only be interpreted as the leader’s personal lust for power.”

He predicted that consolidation on the right would likely culminate in a merger between the People Power Party and the Reform New Party. He said, “For the Democratic Party, it would mean one presidential contender named Cho Kuk joins, and for the People Power Party, in exchange for pushing out Han Dong-hoon, it would amount to little more than gaining one additional presidential contender named Lee Jun-seok.” In other words, a merger or integration between the Democratic Party and the Innovation Party would not lead to a fundamental reshaping of the political landscape.