On the 8th (local time) in Thailand, an early general election to form the next government and a referendum on whether to amend the constitution were held simultaneously. Attention is focused on whether Thailand’s political turmoil, including three changes of prime minister over the past three years, can be addressed through this election and referendum.

According to the Bangkok Post and Reuters, voting began at 8 a.m. at polling stations nationwide to elect 500 members of the lower house (400 constituency seats·100 proportional representation seats). Voting ends at 5 p.m. the same day. A total of 5089 candidates from 57 parties ran. The number of voters is about 53 million.

The election is a fierce three-way contest among the progressive-leaning People Party, the conservative Bhumjaithai Party, and Pheu Thai, the previous ruling party aligned with former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Although the People Party has high support, there is also a possibility that the second·third-place parties could unite to take power.

In the final pre-election opinion poll released on the 5th by Thailand’s National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA), in preferred prime minister ratings, Nattaphong Rueangpanyayut (39), leader of the People Party and a former executive in the information technology (IT) industry, led with 35.1%, followed by Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidate Yotchanan Wongsawat (47) at 21.5%, and incumbent Prime Minister Anutin Chanwirakun (60) of Bhumjaithai at 16.1%.

In party support, the People Party led with 34.2%, Bhumjaithai had 22.6%, and Pheu Thai 16.2%.

This election is accompanied by a referendum on whether to amend the current constitution, enacted in 2017 after the 2014 military coup. In the referendum, voters choose one of ‘Agree’, ‘Disagree’, or ‘No opinion’ in response to a question on whether they consent to drafting a new constitution.

The core of the amendment is to prevent the dismissal of public officials under vague constitutional ethics provisions and to reduce political intervention by judicial and other institutions. It is a constitutional amendment aimed at resolving Thailand’s political turmoil, including the largest party being blocked from taking power and the prime minister changing three times over the past three years.

If this referendum passes, a new draft constitution will be prepared, and the final decision on amendment will be made after second·third referendums to approve it.

The Move Forward Party, predecessor of the People Party, won the general election held in May 2023 with progressive pledges such as revising the lese majeste law but failed to secure a majority of seats. As Pheu Thai, a party aligned with Thaksin, joined with the military, it failed to form a coalition government and was dissolved by a Constitutional Court ruling.

Former Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin of Pheu Thai, a former real estate tycoon, appointed a corrupt associate as minister and was removed from office by a Constitutional Court decision in August 2024. Former Prime Minister Paetongtarn, the youngest daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin, succeeded him, but in August last year, amid a Thailand·Cambodia border clash, it became known that she disparaged her country’s military during a call with Cambodia’s power broker, Senate President Hun Sen, and she too was removed by the Constitutional Court.

The People Party, successor to Move Forward, declared its support for Bhumjaithai, led by incumbent Prime Minister Chanwirakun, after former Prime Minister Paetongtarn was removed, and received a pledge for constitutional revision. However, conflict erupted over the Senate’s veto power on constitutional amendments, and in December last year the People Party withdrew its support for Bhumjaithai. In response, Prime Minister Chanwirakun dissolved parliament and called an early general election.