Sanae Takaichi, Japan’s prime minister and president of the Liberal Democratic Party, campaigns in Tokyo on the 7th. Reuters/Yonhap News
Exit polls from the House of Representatives (lower house) election held on the 8th indicate that the ruling Liberal Democratic Party secured a single-party majority, achieving a landslide.
NHK released exit poll results immediately after the official voting ended at 8 p.m., reporting that the Liberal Democratic Party is expected to take more than 300 of the 465 seats in the House of Representatives.
NHK said that if the LDP’s seats are combined with those of its coalition counterpart, the Japan Innovation Party, they are on track to secure at least 310 seats, or two-thirds of the lower house.
NHK reported that the new party, the Centrist Reform Alliance, launched by the largest opposition Constitutional Democratic Party together with Komeito, could shrink to less than half of the two parties’ previous total of 172 seats.
Specifically, the LDP’s seats were analyzed at 274 to 328, far exceeding the majority threshold of 233. This is even more than the ‘absolute stable majority’ of 261 seats, which allows the party to monopolize the chairmanships of all 17 standing committees and hold a majority of their members.
The Japan Innovation Party is projected to secure 28 to 38 seats. The two parties’ combined total for the LDP and the Japan Innovation Party is estimated at 302 to 366 seats. If they surpass 310 seats, or two-thirds of the total, even if a bill is voted down in the House of Councillors (upper house), where the opposition holds a majority, it can be forced through by being passed again in the House of Representatives.
The Centrist Reform Alliance is expected to take 37 to 91 seats, and the Democratic Party for the People 18 to 35 seats.
Team Mirai, contesting a House of Representatives election for the first time, is projected to make gains with 7 to 13 seats. The right-wing Participation Party, which made gains in last year’s House of Councillors election, is also expected to win 5 to 14 seats in this election, increasing its presence.
NHK said it conducted exit polls at more than 4,000 polling stations nationwide, targeting about 571,000 voters who had finished voting, and analyzed responses from about 340,000 people, or 59.7%, to reach these conclusions.