Attention is focused on what message North Korea will send to the United States at the 9th Congress of the Workers Party that it announced it would convene in the latter part of this month. This is because U.S. President Donald Trump has continued to express a willingness for dialogue with North Korea. There is also interest in whether North Korea will announce content that further concretizes the inter-Korean ‘two hostile states’ doctrine.

Rodong Sinmun reported on the 8th that, as a result of the Politburo meeting of the Party Central Committee held on the 7th under the direction of Chairman Kim Jong-un, the 9th Party Congress will be held in Pyongyang in the latter part of this month. As before, North Korea did not announce a specific date. Experts, however, note the congress could be held around the 20th. The 7th congress (May 2016) ran for four days, and the 8th (January 2021) for eight days.

Kim is expected to mention North KoreaU.S. relations in his work-summarizing report, conclusions, and other addresses at the congress. Since taking office, President Trump has consistently expressed a desire to meet Kim. It is also reported that the United Nations North Korea Sanctions Committee, where the United States wields significant influence, recently decided to approve sanctions exemptions for 17 humanitarian projects toward North Korea that had been on hold since the first half of last year. Kim also remarked last September, to the effect, that dialogue with the United States was open on the premise of recognition as a nuclear-armed state.

However, there is a view that the likelihood of North Korea unveiling a forward-leaning U.S. policy or message at the congress is low. This is because international conditions are highly uncertain and there are many variables, including end-of-war talks in the Russia-Ukraine war and the possibility of clashes between the United States and Iran. Although President Trump is also scheduled to visit China in April, the United States has not set out a clear North Korea policy.

Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, mentioned these circumstances and said, “North Korea will likely keep its message to the United States cautious, restrained, and at a principled level,” adding, “While presenting a policy to advance its nuclear force, it will probably only reaffirm its existing position that it is willing to talk if the United States changes its attitude for peaceful coexistence.”

North Korea is expected to set out an idea to maintain close alignment with Russia, citing the reported results of dispatching forces in the Russia-Ukraine war. Attention also turns to what will be said regarding relations with China, which, despite laying the groundwork for restoring ties through a North KoreaChina summit last September, still appear to show a chill.

Many also forecast little change in North Korea policy toward the South. The Lee Jae Myung administration has been sending conciliatory messages and taking steps to ease tensions, such as halting loudspeaker broadcasts toward the North, but North Korea has shown a cool response, calling improvement in inter-Korean relations “a pipe dream.” Im Eul-chul, a professor at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University, said, “North Korea also needs a reduction in military tensions between the two Koreas in order to focus on internal issues,” adding, “It will likely remain at the level of emphasizing the legitimacy of the existing inter-Korean ‘two hostile states’.” There is also discussion that North Korea may take concrete steps such as incorporating the hostile two states doctrine into the Workers Party charter.

North Korea is expected to announce a new five-year plan in the defense and economy sectors at the congress. Last month, Kim stated, “we will declare the next stage of plans to further strengthen the nuclear war deterrent of the country.” It may unveil more offensive policy goals for strengthening its nuclear force. It may also present a ‘nuclear·conventional weapons parallel development’ line through modernization of conventional arms, along with concrete tasks to achieve it.

In the economic sphere, it is expected to highlight the results of Chairman Kim’s priority initiative ‘Regional Development 20X10’ while signaling determination to push it forward. Professor Im said, “The 9th Party Congress appears likely to be an occasion to proclaim a leap forward in the so-called ‘overall development of socialism,’ asserting that a nuclear-armed great power is even solving the livelihood issues of the people (local economies).” There is also a view that the issue of Kim ascending to ‘state president’ could be taken up at the congress.