The conservative Bhumjaithai Party, led by incumbent Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, appears likely to emerge as the largest party in the general election held on the 8th (local time).

According to provisional tallies by the Election Commission of Thailand, with about 95% of ballots counted, Bhumjaithai is projected to secure about 192 of the 500 seats in the lower house. Official results will be announced in early April.

The progressive People's Party, which campaigned on reforming the monarchy and the military, is expected to take 117 seats, while the Pheu Thai Party, associated with the family of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is seen winning 74. The Kla Tham Party, aligned with Bhumjaithai, also appears set to win at least 57 seats.

Once the election commission finalizes the results within 60 days, the new parliament convened within the following 15 days will elect as prime minister the person who gains a majority of lower house members. As Bhumjaithai falls short of an outright majority, Prime Minister Anutin would have to form a coalition to stay on for another term. The leading potential partners are viewed as the Kla Tham Party and Pheu Thai.

At the party headquarters in Bangkok that night, Prime Minister Anutin said, “It is highly likely that we will take first place in the election,” adding, “This victory belongs to all Thai people.” On forming a coalition, he said, “I want a strong majority government, but I am waiting for the final election results.”

Nattaphong Luangpanyawut, leader of the People's Party, accepted the result and said he would not join a Bhumjaithai-led coalition.

This general election was held after Prime Minister Anutin dissolved parliament in December last year. After former Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra was impeached by a Constitutional Court decision, he took over as prime minister and, judging that governing under a minority administration would be difficult, decided on an early election in less than 100 days in office.

Bhumjaithai actively leveraged the nationalist mood that spread after the border dispute with Cambodia last year during the campaign. Prime Minister Anutin put forward building a border barrier among his key pledges. Independent political analyst Mathis Rohatheppanont told Reuters, “A strengthened nationalist political environment and the consolidation of conservative voters worked to their advantage.”

Analysts also say that the fact that the prime minister changed three times over the past three years, prolonging political turmoil, affected voter sentiment. Tita Sangli, a researcher at the Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said in an interview with The New York Times, “Public priorities have shifted from reform to the need for stability.”

In the referendum held alongside the general election on whether to pursue constitutional revision, support stood at 59.77%, about twice the opposition. If support exceeds half, the new government can begin the amendment process in parliament.