The Tokyo Shimbun reported on the 10th that Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which won a landslide in the House of Representatives (lower house) election on the 8th, appears set to seek partnerships with opposition parties that support constitutional amendment, such as the Democratic Party for the People and the Sanseito, to realize revision. Although the LDP alone secured 316 seats, enough to introduce an amendment bill, it is expected to court opposition forces as part of efforts to overcome the ‘nejire (twist, kink) Diet’ situation in which the ruling camp lacks a majority in the House of Councillors (upper house).

The Tokyo Shimbun said that the LDP’s overwhelming victory in the lower house made it possible for the party alone to introduce an amendment, but the nejire Diet situation remains unchanged. A senior official in the Takaichi Cabinet told the Tokyo Shimbun, “If we move deliberations forward in the House of Representatives, the House of Councillors will have no choice but to deliberate as well,” adding that they would seek to prepare the environment for introducing an amendment. The nejire Diet refers to a split situation in which the ruling and opposition camps hold majorities in different chambers. For the LDP, which has secured the two-thirds threshold in the lower house to introduce an amendment, bringing pro-amendment forces in the upper house into its camp may be the fastest route to realizing a national referendum. The next upper house election is scheduled for 2028, two years from now.

Immediately after the general election victory, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signaled her intention to realize a national referendum on revision through cooperation with other parties, and cabinet ministers have also been expressing eagerness for amendment. At a press conference on the 9th, Prime Minister Takaichi emphasized, “We will also proceed with the challenge toward constitutional amendment,” and, “With the cooperation of each party, we are determined to strive to create an environment in which a national referendum asking yes or no on amendment can be held as swiftly as possible.” Earlier, in a party leaders’ meeting with Nippon Ishin leader Hirofumi Yoshimura, Takaichi confirmed the continuation of their coalition and agreed to accelerate the push for revision. At the special Diet session scheduled for the 18th, the LDP plans to reclaim from the opposition the chairmanship of the Lower House Commission on the Constitution and advance related discussions.

Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi also said at a press conference on the 10th, “We must provide the people with the opportunity to put the (amendment) to a national referendum as soon as possible,” expressing the view that preparations for holding a referendum should be expedited. He stressed, “Once the environment is in place for proceeding with the procedures, we should move quickly toward realization.”

The LDP’s envisioned amendment is expected to center on revising Article 9 of the Constitution and explicitly stipulating the Self-Defense Forces. During the general election campaign, Prime Minister Takaichi said, “Why should we not write the Self-Defense Forces into the Constitution?” and added, “To protect their pride and to make the SDF a truly capable organization, of course we must amend the Constitution.” Article 9 of the so-called pacifist Constitution stipulates the permanent renunciation of war and the use of force, prohibits maintaining land, sea, and air forces, and denies the right of belligerency.

Japanese media also expect the LDP to seek cooperation with opposition parties for the time being not only for amendment but also to pass other bills. The Yomiuri Shimbun reported that, although the LDP, by securing more than two-thirds of the seats in the lower house on its own, has effectively obtained a procedural trump card for re-passing in the lower house bills rejected by the upper house, it will prioritize winning opposition cooperation rather than relying on re-passage, as doing so could provoke a backlash from opposition parties. LDP Secretary-General Shunichi Suzuki told reporters in the early hours of the 9th, “We should refrain from forcing things through by relying on numerical strength.” At a press conference the same day, Prime Minister Takaichi also indicated that resolving the ruling camp’s minority status in the upper house through expanding the coalition is a priority, saying, “If the Democratic Party for the People is inclined (to join the coalition), I would certainly like to pursue it.”

The Yomiuri noted that, because strong opposition backlash tends to grow, successive cabinets have refrained from re-passage; it cited the case under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2015, when re-passage was considered after upper house deliberations on the security legislation were prolonged due to opposition resistance, but was ultimately shelved. The Yomiuri added that appointments requiring Diet consent, such as the Bank of Japan governor, are excluded from re-passage, indicating its limits. In the past, when the ruling camp held more than two-thirds of the lower house, there were 18 instances of re-passage of bills defeated in the upper house under the cabinets of Yasuo Fukuda, Taro Aso, and Abe’s second cabinet.

The Asahi Shimbun reported that Prime Minister Takaichi, who led the first victory since the end of the Pacific War in which a single party won more than two-thirds of the seats, is in a position to wield power exceeding that of former Prime Minister Abe, and that even among Takaichi’s close aides, concerns are being voiced about the concentration of power.

The Asahi said that under former Prime Minister Abe’s ‘1-strong’ system, multiple factions within the LDP made consideration for other factions indispensable in running the government, but that after the slush fund scandal, all factions other than the ‘Aso faction’ led by Vice President Taro Aso have been dissolved. One party official told the Asahi, “The campaign to claim ‘I am close to the prime minister’ will begin.”

The Asahi also reported that, unlike under Abe, the coalition partner now is very different. In Abe’s cabinet, the coalition partner Komeito acted as a brake on right-wing policies, but today’s partner, Nippon Ishin, serves as an accelerator, likely speeding up policy drives by Prime Minister Takaichi, who is classified as right-leaning even within the LDP. A former cabinet minister close to Takaichi said, “The prime minister places more importance on Ishin than on the liberal wing within the LDP.”

Regarding this ‘Takaichi 1-strong’ system, the Asahi reported that even within the Prime Minister’s Office there are voices expressing concern about power concentrating in the hands of Prime Minister Takaichi, who is said to be a solitary type with a “personality that easily shuts herself away alone.” A lawmaker close to Takaichi also said, “If there is no one to speak candidly with negative opinions, it is very dangerous.” The Asahi said that a Prime Minister’s Office official, while calling the (lower house) dissolution gambit a great success, voiced concern that if the prime minister rushes toward a ‘court politics’ style in which key policy decisions are made in secret with a very small circle of close aides, “Even with a ‘1-strong’ prime minister, there will be no sharing of direction and information with stakeholders, and the Prime Minister’s Office will fail to function as a team.”