On the 12th, the National Intelligence Service assessed that Ju-ae, the daughter of North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong Un, has entered the stage of being designated successor. The National Intelligence Service judged that the terrorist who attacked President Lee Jae Myung in 2024 was influenced by a far-right YouTuber.

At a closed full meeting of the National Assembly’s Intelligence Committee that day, the National Intelligence Service reported that “Kim Ju-ae’s presence has continued to be highlighted at events such as the recent Air Force Day ceremony and the visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, and signs were detected that she offered opinions on certain policy measures,” according to a briefing by Park Seon-won of the Democratic Party and Lee Seong-kwon of the People Power Party, the committee’s secretaries from the opposition and the ruling parties. The NIS added, “Considering all aspects, we judge that she has currently entered the successor-designation stage.”

Last year, the NIS described Ju-ae as “in successor training,” but on this day it used the expression “successor-designation stage.” The NIS reported, “We plan to closely monitor during North Korea’s upcoming Ninth Party Congress (to be held in February) and related events whether Kim Ju-ae participates, her protocol status, the use of symbolic terms and her real name, and any signs in party rules that suggest succession.”

Until now, the NIS had estimated that, in addition to Ju-ae (believed to be born in 2013), there might be an older brother born in 2010 and a younger sibling born in 2017, but their existence has never been officially confirmed. The NIS appears to have recently lowered the likelihood of the brother’s existence.

Since November 2021, Ju-ae has frequently accompanied Chairman Kim at defense, economic, and diplomatic events. Du Jin-ho, head of the Eurasia Center at the National Strategy Research Institute, said, “Using the Ninth Party Congress as an occasion, they will grant the underage Ju-ae an informal title to increase her involvement in various policy measures and will accelerate the consolidation of control over the military, both directly and indirectly.”

There is also a counterargument that the NIS’s evidentiary basis is weak. Hong Min, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said, “In the cases of Kim Jong Il and Kim Jong Un, successor designation proceeded alongside gaining experience within the party and the military and building ideology and organizations for the successor,” adding, “To assess that Ju-ae, a minor who cannot even join the party, has been designated as successor, more supporting evidence must be presented.”

The NIS reported to the National Assembly that about 10,000 North Korean combat troops and about 1,000 engineers assigned to construction duties have been deployed to Russia’s Kursk region. It stated that around 1,100 combat troops and engineers who returned to North Korea in December last year may be redeployed. The NIS also reported that about 6,000 personnelequivalent to 60% of the deployed forcehave become casualties, and that in coordination with Russia they are improving unmanned aerial vehicle and ballistic missile technology.

The NIS reported that after Chairman Kim attended China’s parade marking the 80th anniversary of Victory Day last September, it “assessed that North Korea-China relations have not gained momentum.” The NIS stated, “Last year, North Korea-China trade volume exceeded $3 billion, the largest in six years, but it is about half the level seen before sanctions against the North,” adding, “Apart from China providing tens of thousands of tons of fertilizer, no trend of additional economic aid has been identified.”

Regarding the prospects for North KoreaU.S. dialogue, the NIS believed that “North Korea may respond to talks if conditions are met,” and predicted that at the Ninth Party Congress it “will present a policy roadmap for building a nuclear-armed socialist powerhouse.”

Concerning the attack on President Lee at Busan’s Gadeokdo in January 2024designated as an act of terrorismwhen he was the Democratic Party leader, Representative Park said the NIS stated that “it appears certain the terrorist was influenced by far-right YouTuber Ko Seong-guk.” Park added, “Regarding whether there was a phone call between Ko Seong-guk and the assailant, the NIS said, ‘I understand there was (a call),’ and ‘We even partially confirmed that the assailant actually visited <Ko Seong-guk TV>.’”