As the third round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran opens in Geneva, Switzerland, on the 26th (local time), the world is watching closely to see whether U.S. President Donald Trump will order a strike on Iran. With Washington deploying its largest military force in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq War and weighing an attack on Iran, attention is on whether the two sides can craft an agreement to avoid military conflict.

The crux is whether they can reach a deal that allows both to declare ‘victory’. Tehran maintains it can never give up uranium enrichment, while President Trump needs to extract concessions from Iran that go beyond the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) struck under the Obama administration.

Both sides are expected to lay all their cards on the table to try for an agreement. If no breakthrough is found, President Trump is likely to launch limited strikes targeting Iran’s military and nuclear facilities, a move that could spark a conflict pushing the entire Middle East into instability.

Washington and Tehran are floating proposals behind the scenes that could satisfy each other’s ‘red lines’. In his State of the Union address on the 24th, President Trump said, “We can never allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons.” Iran must put forward a deal that both assures the United States it has no intention of developing nuclear weapons and allows Trump to claim he achieved a bigger outcome than his predecessors.

The New York Times (NYT), citing Iranian government officials, reported that Iran has proposed halting uranium enrichment for 3-5 years, then maintaining a very low 1.5% level for medical research purposes while joining a regional nuclear consortium.

The U.S. online outlet Axios reported that Envoy Witkoff is demanding that Iran agree to any future nuclear accord remaining in force indefinitely without a ‘sunset clause’. Witkoff made the comment at a private gathering of the pro-Israel lobbying group the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) on the 24th.

The premise for removing the ‘sunset clause’ is that the JCPOA provided for restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program to be lifted gradually over 8 to 25 years after signing. If a new nuclear deal eliminates the ‘sunset clause’, President Trump could claim he reached a stronger agreement than before.

Tehran’s insistence that uranium enrichment is an inalienable right is a stumbling block. U.S. officials told Axios they could tolerate symbolic, small-scale uranium enrichment so that the Iranian leadership can save face as having protected its enrichment rights.

The Guardian reported that Tehran has set three conditions for sealing a nuclear deal: recognition of a symbolic right to enrich uranium, allowing the dilution of highly enriched uranium, and prohibiting limits on its ballistic missile program. Iranian officials claimed that in earlier nuclear talks the U.S. negotiating team, Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy, and son-in-law Jared Kushner, had already accepted these principles. It added, citing sources, that the United States proposed capping the enrichment level at 5%, and that Iran’s negotiating team was surprised by Washington’s softened terms.

However, it remains uncertain whether President Trump would accept a deal that allows Iran to enrich. Washington’s desire to limit Iran’s ballistic missile program is another sticking point. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned the previous day that Iran must also negotiate over its ballistic missile program, calling Tehran’s refusal to discuss missiles “a very serious problem”.

If talks collapse today, President Trump would be highly likely to launch limited strikes targeting Iran’s military and nuclear facilities. Sanam Vakil, head of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, told the NYT, “If Iran does not show sufficient willingness to compromise and the United States does not show sufficient willingness to offer sanctions relief, the situation will explode,” adding, “Both sides will reveal all their cards.”

U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said in a Fox News interview the day before, “Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons. Iran’s supreme leader needs to understand that,” adding, “We hope to achieve a good solution without the use of military force. But if military force must be used, the president has that authority.”

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian emphasized the same day, “We make it clear that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons.” Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister and the lead negotiator, said, “An agreement is close,” but warned that if the United States and Iran collide, “neither side would be able to win, and it would be a destructive war.”