Assessments are divided over the effectiveness of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s public support for U.S.-Israeli strikes against Iran. It is interpreted as a move to express animosity toward Iran, which has supported Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and to strengthen coordination with U.S. President Donald Trump, but analysts say the strategic effect is uncertain.

According to the Kyiv Independent on the 2nd (local time), Ukrainian political analyst Volodymyr Fesenko said of the background to the show of support, “It is aimed at exploiting the contradictions between the U.S. and Russia,” adding, “The intention is to show that Russia is an ally of Iran and that Ukraine is on the side of the United States.”

On the 27th of last month, the day before the U.S.-Israeli strikes, President Zelensky remarked that the Iranian people wanted help to overthrow the current regime, and on the 28th he formalized his support shortly after the operation began. The Ukrainian government believes Iran has effectively joined the war by supplying Shahed unmanned aerial vehicles (drones) to Russia.

However, it is uncertain whether this show of support will lead to tangible diplomatic results. This is because President Trump has maintained a relatively friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin. There are even concerns that if a war with Iran drags on, it could work to Ukraine’s disadvantage. As U.S. attention and military resources shift to the Middle East, support for Ukraine could shrink, and the possibility of disruptions in weapons supplies, especially air defense systems, is being discussed.

A senior European official told Politico Europe on the 3rd, “A significant amount of firepower, including interceptor missiles, has been expended,” adding, “The United States needs to replenish its weapons, and that will result in fewer quantities available for Europe or Ukraine to purchase.” Rihor Nizhnikau of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs said, “If the Iranian regime is not overthrown, this strike is likely to turn into a long war, and that will divert resources away from Ukraine.”

Instability in the Middle East is already affecting the diplomatic schedule related to cease-fire talks. Iran’s attack on the United Arab Emirates has made it uncertain whether a planned trilateral peace meeting among Ukraine, the United States, and Russia in Abu Dhabi will take place. Energy markets are also a factor. There are concerns that if international oil prices rise above $100 per barrel, Russia’s war funds could increase. Fesenko pointed out, “A rise in oil prices will bring Russia additional oil revenues, and that could become a major source of war funding.”