Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps “No oil will get out”
If it drags on, a global recession is inevitable
Trump hints at the possibility of ‘large-scale strikes’

On the fourth day of armed clashes with the United States and Israel, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps declared a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to attack any vessel attempting to transit. U.S. President Donald Trump raised the possibility of a ‘ground troop deployment’, signaling that a large-scale strike on Iran could come soon. As the front of this crisis spreads across the Middle East, concerns are mounting that a prolonged conflict could also shock the global economy.

Major General Ebrahim Jabari, an adviser to the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, said on the 2nd (local time) via Iran's semi-official ISNA news agency that “the Strait of Hormuz has been closed” and that “if anyone attempts to pass through, the Revolutionary Guard and the regular navy will burn any vessel.” He also said, “Not a single drop of oil will be allowed to leave.” After notifying ships on the 28th of last month of a ‘closure of the Strait of Hormuz’ policy when U.S. and Israeli attacks began, he ratcheted up the warning on this day. The Strait of Hormuz is known as a ‘global energy artery’, with about 20% of the world's seaborne crude shipments passing through it. If a full blockade persists, it could lead to inflation from a surge in international oil prices and a global economic downturn. On the day, May-delivery Brent crude futures on the U.S. ICE Futures exchange at one point jumped 13% intraday from the previous session, and April-delivery West Texas Intermediate crude futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged 12%, before closing up a little over 6% from the previous session at $77.74 and $71.23 per barrel, respectively.

Appearing in public for the first time since the start of strikes on Iran, President Trump said that “we have not even begun full-scale pressure yet” and that “a bigger wave will come soon.” On the expected duration of the campaign against Iran, he said he had “estimated about 4~5 weeks, but we have the ability to continue much longer.” In an interview with the New York Post, he said he had “no queasiness about ground troops,” leaving open the possibility of a ground deployment.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said of the operation against Iran that “the strongest U.S. military strikes have not yet begun” and that “the next phase will be far more painful for Iran than now.” The Trump administration also indicated that it is preparing for a medium- to long-term campaign, saying it is deploying additional forces to, and supplying logistics for, U.S. Central Command, which is leading the strikes against Iran. The U.S. State Department on the day strongly urged its citizens staying in 14 Middle Eastern countries, including Iran and Kuwait, to depart immediately.

As Iran's counterattacks have spread across the Middle East, the number of U.S. service members killed in action has risen to six as of this day.