U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran have put China in a difficult spot ahead of a planned U.S·China summit next month. Chinese President Xi Jinping must welcome President Trump at home after back-to-back attacks on countries friendly to China, following Venezuela. Experts are debating the likelihood that the summit will go ahead.

After the U.S. Supreme Court struck down reciprocal tariff measures, it had been expected that China could hold the summit from a favorable position during the visit by President Trump scheduled for the 31st of this month through the 3rd of next month. The U.S. strike on Iran has upended that outlook. It comes two months after the ouster in January of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. President Trump signaled that the operation would last about four weeks.

If events proceed as planned, the summit would take place while China is unable to prevent an attack on a friendly nation, and the Iran issue is likely to stay on the table.

China criticized the U.S. airstrikes on Iran but kept a restrained tone. Mao Ning, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said on the 2nd regarding the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, “Attacking and killing the supreme leader of Iran constitutes a serious infringement on the sovereignty and security of Iran,” and added, “China firmly opposes this and strongly condemns it.” On the 3rd, Mao said, “China has respected the right of Iran to the peaceful use of nuclear energy, and Iran has repeatedly stated that it has no intention to develop nuclear weapons,” and added, “The Iranian nuclear issue must ultimately return to a political·diplomatic track for resolution.”

Within China, some interpret the strikes as a kind of signal aimed at China. Xinhua News Agency, noting that the United States engaged in talks before the strikes, commented, “For the United States, negotiations are closer to a tactical truce before the resumption of military attacks than a genuine path to the peaceful resolution of disputes.”

Minxin Pei, a professor at Claremont McKenna College, told Nikkei Asia, “The Xinhua commentary reflects the increasingly widespread view among Chinese elites and the public that the United States cannot be trusted,” and added, “The summit will probably not be canceled, but it is likely to be postponed.”

Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University, told the Hong Kong South China Morning Post (SCMP), “The Trump administration is fostering regime change. This can trigger very serious and significant concerns for the Chinese side,” adding that debate is unfolding among Chinese experts about the hidden intentions of the United States. This is read as concern that the United States could aim to topple the Chinese Communist Party regime, akin to the overthrow of the Islamic regime in Iran.

China has taken a hit in both practical and symbolic terms from the U.S. attack on Iran. Iran accounts for 13.4% of the total oil imports of China. If the Strait of Hormuz, a key Chinese trade route, were to be closed, the blow to exports would be even greater.

The display of Chinese military helplessness in the face of the U.S. airstrikes on Iran is also seen as a symbolic blow. Nicholas Burns, who served as ambassador to China under the Joe Biden administration, said on X, “China is proving to be an inept friend to its authoritarian allies.”

The delay in arms sales to Taiwan, once viewed as a concession by President Trump, is being reinterpreted. In an analysis, Zineb Riboua, a researcher at the Hudson Institute Center for Middle East Peace and Security, wrote, “The delay in arms sales, which came after the early February U.S·China leaders phone call, had been seen as President Trump yielding to a warning from President Xi, but now it can instead be interpreted as a gift from President Trump.”

Riboua assessed, “The Iranian offensive is the opening act of U.S·China competition and the start of a U.S. attempt to reignite the Indo-Pacific era.” The idea is to remove the Iranian nuclear issue, which prevents the United States from focusing on the Pacific, and to block the strategy of China to turn the Middle East into a U.S·China theater of contention.

By contrast, Sun Dingli, an international relations scholar based in Shanghai, said, “The long-term objective of both countries to stabilize U.S·China relations has not changed,” and expected the summit to proceed as scheduled. He added that it would be difficult to achieve major results such as a joint statement.

David Arase, resident professor of international politics at the Johns Hopkins-Nanjing Center, viewed that China will push ahead with the summit because it needs to address what it regards as the most important issue, Taiwan. However, China will now approach the meeting after confirming the overwhelming military power of the United States, as well as its capability and will to project force abroad, which increases the burden compared with before.

In the longer term, some question whether the Iran strike will necessarily lead to outcomes favorable to the United States, so there is also an assessment that China is not on the defensive in U.S·China relations. Reuters pointed out that if Xi pushes ahead with the summit, it may reflect a judgment that the more the United States becomes embroiled in Middle East conflict, the more it stands to lose.