Following United States airstrikes against Iran, freight rates for crude oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz have tripled in two weeks, while cargo volumes have fallen 80%. With the Iranian military, struck by United States and Israeli airstrikes, effectively sealing the Strait of Hormuz, oil transport in the Middle East has been disrupted.

In its report published on the 4th, ‘Analysis of shipping and logistics impacts under restricted transits in the Strait of Hormuz’, the Korea Ocean Business Corporation stated, “The expansion of geopolitical risk in the Middle East is being immediately reflected in tanker freight rates.”

According to the report, as of the previous day, freight on the Middle East~China route for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) had risen about 3.3-fold compared with the 13th of last month, two weeks earlier. This is attributed to intensified competition among vessels seeking alternative loading points to avoid geopolitical risk, as well as an increase in transport distance from detours, which has raised the ‘ton-mile’ metric of overall transport efficiency.

Throughput also plummeted. As of the 2nd, cargo volume passing through the Strait of Hormuz was down about 80% from normal levels. Factors include a decline in transiting ships centered on oil tankers, broader restrictions and cancellations of war risk insurance, and surging insurance premiums.

KOBC projected that if restrictions on transits in the Strait of Hormuz persist for the next month, the planned import of 90 million barrels of crude into Korea will be delayed. Middle Eastern crude typically takes 25 days to reach Korea via the Strait of Hormuz, but detouring via West Africa would extend the transit time to 35~60 days.

Tension is also rising in the container shipping market. Shipping analytics firm Linerlytica said capacity of about 3.4 million TEU (1 TEU = one 20-foot container) has been deployed on routes that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This corresponds to about 10% of global container capacity, and if restrictions persist, vessel slots and container equipment could run short and major Asian ports could become congested.

Indeed, on the 2nd alone, the freight futures price on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange for the Asia~North Europe route for July delivery rose by about 15 percentage points. Because major container freight indices are published weekly, the impact of this situation has not yet been reflected in the indices, but rates could climb further.

The Strait of Hormuz is a key maritime corridor linking the Middle East and the global energy market. About 34% of global seaborne crude oil trade and about 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade pass through this chokepoint. In particular, 70.7% of the crude oil and 20.4% of the LNG that Korea imports rely on Middle Eastern routes.