Analysts say the United States and Israel, and Iran, now on the fifth consecutive day of armed clashes, have entered a ‘race against time’. While the United States and Israel are focused on neutralizing Iran as swiftly as possible, Iran is countering with a strategy of buying time by widening the fronts and increasing the damage.

On the 3rd (local time), The New York Times (NYT) reported expert views that Iran is steering toward a long war as a strategy for regime survival. Facing the overwhelming firepower of the United States and Israel, Iran intends to raise the ‘cost of war’ to pressure U.S. President Donald Trump into pulling back. Broadening the fronts across Middle Eastern countries and closing the Strait of Hormuz to fuel energy-supply shocks and inflation fears are cited as elements of this strategy.

This is a so-called ‘asymmetric patience strategy’, based on the calculation that President Trump, confronted with the burden of the midterm elections and pushback from his core ‘MAGA’ (Make America Great Again) base, will scale down the war before U.S. casualties rise further and prices climb higher. Vali Nasr, a professor of Middle East studies at Johns Hopkins University, told the NYT, “This war has become a test of will and stamina,” adding, “Confronting militaries that are qualitatively superior, Iran has chosen to expand the battlefield, complicate the war, and heighten risks to the global economy in order to test the resolve of the United States and Israel.”

Iran’s approach can also be read as an attempt to run the clock until the air-defense networks of the United States, Israel, and the Gulf region hit their limits, even at the cost of early losses. The aim is to keep the situation going until those air-defense systems are depleted, creating an opportunity to pressure the United States and Israel to halt attacks and negotiate with Iran.

In fact, Iran is reported to be waging a “cost-imposition” war of attrition that drains the expensive U.S.-Israeli air-defense capacity with low-cost unmanned aerial vehicles (drones). Reza Talaei-Nik, spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of National Defense, told the state-run IRNA news agency, “We have the capability to defend longer and more aggressively than the war plan announced by the enemies,” and emphasized, “We will not deploy all of our advanced weapons and equipment in just the first few days.” After the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Ali Larijani, secretary-general of the Supreme National Security Council who leads Iran’s military and security sphere, said on the 1st, “Iran has prepared for a long war.”

The British daily the Guardian conveyed expert analysis that the outcome of this round of hostilities may hinge on “which runs out first, Iran’s missiles or the American side’s air-defense missiles.” Iran is believed to possess more than 2,000 short- and medium-range missiles, though exact stockpiles have not been disclosed. When the “12-day war” between Iran and Israel erupted last June, there were assessments that by the end Israel’s stock of air-defense missiles had fallen to a dangerous level.

President Trump signaled further strikes against Iran, which is pursuing an attritional strategy, without ruling out the possibility of deploying ground forces. He is also reported to be considering supporting Kurdish armed groups to seek regime change in Iran. Beyond encouraging Iranian citizens to rise up on their own, he appears to be weighing whether armed factions, including Kurds, could play a role in toppling the regime. As Iran strikes across the Middle East and amplifies the damage, even European countries that did not initially support the U.S. attack may now be more likely to intervene in this crisis to protect their interests in the region, the NYT reported.