It has emerged that Mojtaba Khamenei, the son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed by attacks from the United States and Israel, is the leading contender to be selected as his successor. Mojtaba has been a ‘gatekeeper’ exerting influence over the decisions of Khamenei, and he is buoyed by strong backing from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a hardline military force in Iran.

The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 3rd (local time), citing an Iranian government official, that the Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body that selects the Supreme Leader, met that day and seriously considered choosing Mojtaba as the next leader. The Assembly is weighing announcing Mojtaba as successor as early as the 4th. However, some are concerned that Mojtaba could become a target of the United States and Israel.

The London-based opposition outlet Iran International reported that the Assembly of Experts had chosen Mojtaba as the next Supreme Leader. It said the decision has not yet been made public and is expected to be announced after Khamenei's funeral.

At 56, Mojtaba is the second son of Khamenei and has never held an official post, but as one of Khamenei's closest aides he has exercised influence from behind the scenes. For decades he has maintained close ties with the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia, and he has built a robust network across the chain of command. He is known to have served as a key link between Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard leadership. In 2019, the United States placed Mojtaba under sanctions, saying he had been delegated and exercised some of the Supreme Leader's authorities.

Iran International reported that over the past 20 years Mojtaba had effectively run the Supreme Leader's office, ‘Beit’. Beit is the core of the Iranian system, controlling major security, political, and financial levers.

Backed by the Revolutionary Guard, Mojtaba has long been mentioned as a strong candidate for the next Supreme Leader, but he has also been dogged by questions of legitimacy due to ‘hereditary succession’ and his lack of electoral or public office experience. In the Islamic Republic, which was born from the overthrow of the Pahlavi monarchy, dynastic succession is taboo.

Despite the legitimacy debate, Mojtaba's rapid emergence as heir apparent is seen as largely driven by the Revolutionary Guard, which prioritized internal stability in a wartime emergency.

Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University, analyzed, “If Mojtaba is chosen, it indicates that the much more hardline Revolutionary Guard side is in control within the current Iranian system.”

Iranian analyst Mehdi Rahmati said, “Mojtaba is the most prudent choice for now because he is well versed in running and coordinating security and military institutions.”

Iran International assessed that the Revolutionary Guard backed Mojtaba in terms of both ‘control’ and ‘legitimacy’. To prevent fractures among the top leadership, maintain cooperation with the security forces, and block internal power struggles, Mojtaba is the right fit to secure internal stability and control. In addition, as Khamenei's direct heir, Mojtaba can command legitimacy among the regime's core base, hardline politicians, and within the security institutions.

However, there are also fears of a backlash, including alienation among those opposed to the Iranian system. Rahmati said, “Opponents will see him as the successor to a system that killed at least 7,000 anti-government protesters.” With United States President Donald Trump urging Iranians to stage protests for regime change, anti-government demonstrations against him could also break out.

Some speculate that Mojtaba could pursue reforms similar to those of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Abdolreza Davari, a politician close to Mojtaba, told the NYT, “He is very progressive and will move in a direction that sidelines hardliners,” and added, “His appointment should be seen as ‘shedding the skin’.”

President Donald Trump said at a press conference that the candidates he had in mind as Iran's next ruler had all died, stating, “If someone as bad as Khamenei seizes power, it will be the worst-case scenario,” and, “I hope someone who can set Iran right for its people comes to power.”

If Mojtaba becomes Supreme Leader, he faces a choice between vengeance and escalation over his father's blood, or stepping back for negotiations. Iran International assessed that Mojtaba has advantages in both options: if he chooses to continue the war, it can be framed as succession and revenge; conversely, if he opts for negotiations for survival, it can be presented not as humiliation forced from outside but as a decision taken by the successor and the family.

Under the constitution, Iran's Supreme Leader is selected by the Assembly of Experts, which is composed of 88 senior clerics. Although the Assembly's building collapsed in an Israeli airstrike that day, Fars News reported that the building was empty at the time.

Meanwhile, starting on the night of the 4th, Iran will hold three days of national mourning for Khamenei. The Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported, “From 10 p.m., the faithful can visit Tehran's Imam Khomeini Grand Mosque to pay their last respects to the remains of the ‘martyred leader’.”