The United States is reportedly preparing a ground assault operation against Iran by supporting Kurdish armed groups in Iran and Iraq. If Kurdish armed groups with thousands of fighters join the fight, it would mark the first instance of sizeable ground forces being deployed in a U.S.-Israel versus Iran war. Iran has struck the headquarters of Kurdish groups in Iraq with missiles.

On the 4th (local time), the New York Times and the Associated Press reported that pro-U.S. Kurdish armed groups are preparing armed units capable of infiltrating across the border into Iran, and that the United States has asked Iraqi Kurds to support these groups.

Some outlets that day also reported that Kurdish fighters had crossed into Iran and launched a ground assault operation. Fox News, citing a U.S. government official, reported that thousands of fighters had moved from Iraq into Iran and begun attacks. The Jerusalem Post likewise reported that hundreds of fighters had begun operating in areas inside Iran near the Iraqi border.

However, the Kurdish side denied these reports. Aziz Ahmad, deputy chief of staff in the office of the prime minister of the Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq, called them “an outright falsehood,” adding, “Not a single Iraqi Kurd has crossed the border.” The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) of Iran also denied the reports as “an intent to harm the security and stability of Iran,” while warning that “any attempt at infiltration will face a harsh response.”

Participation by Kurdish armed groups in ground operations against Iran appears likely to become a major variable in a war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other. Kurdish armed groups are known as the most organized among Iranian opposition forces, and they have thousands of fighters. They have experience fighting the Islamic State (IS) in coordination with the United States.

The NYT pointed out that Kurdish participation in a ground war could force the Iranian military to disperse its forces, creating opportunities for strikes by U.S. or Israeli warplanes. It could also ease the suppression of anti-government protests and opposition forces in major Iranian cities, fomenting regime change and pushing the already beleaguered Iranian government into crisis.

A representative of Komala, one of the Iran-based Kurdish groups, told the AP that “forces are ready to cross the border within a week to 10 days,” and that they are “waiting for the conditions to be set appropriately.”

The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has reportedly supplied Kurdish armed groups with small arms as part of a covert operation to destabilize the Iranian regime. The NYT reported that CIA support for weapons began before the war broke out and, as part of a long-term covert campaign, was intended not to bring down the Iranian system but rather to distract the regime and create potential security risks.

The AP also reported that on the night of the 1st, the day after President Donald Trump launched attacks on Iran, he spoke with leaders of the main Kurdish parties in Iraq, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and requested military support for Kurdish armed groups. White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt acknowledged the calls but denied that any specific support plans were discussed.

Some analysis suggests that the impact of Kurdish armed groups entering the war would be limited. Citing sources, the NYT reported that these groups are unlikely to overthrow the Iranian government or have a major impact on regime change. The CIA has provided only small arms to the Kurds, and since these groups do not possess tanks or heavy weapons, it would be difficult to pose a real threat to the theocracy.

Meanwhile, Iran attacked the headquarters of Kurdish groups located in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq that day. The Iranian government stated that it had struck “the headquarters of anti-revolutionary Kurdish groups in Iraqi Kurdistan” with three missiles. In the Kurdistan Region, Kurdish armed groups operate forces numbering in the thousands.