With the ‘Epic Fury’ operation, launched on the orders of U.S. President Donald Trump, now beyond a week, the United States, Israel, Iran, and numerous other Middle Eastern countries are being sucked into the war like a black hole. This is because Iran, having suffered a preemptive airstrike, is mounting a comprehensive counterattack.

Amid this, a worldrenowned nonprofit research organization has warned that severe environmental pollution is likely in areas hit by airstrikes. Above all, the toxic propellant and oxidizer believed to be stored at Iranian missile bases are the key concern.

On the 3rd (local time), the U.K.based research group Conflict and Environment Observatory (CEOBS) released an official brief stating that the destruction of key facilities across the Middle East, sparked by U.S. airstrikes on Iran, carries a high risk of environmental contamination.

CEOBS verified 120 airstrike incidents and assessed the environmental risk in 92 of them. The damage spanned Iran as well as Israel, Kuwait, Jordan, Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, which became targets of Iranian retaliation. CEOBS combined media reports and social media geolocations with satellite imagery to closely examine the impact at each strike site.

Among the sites CEOBS flagged as most concerning for potential environmental harm were Iranian missile bases. That is because the propellant and oxidizer used in Iran’s older Scudfamily missilesof which it is estimated to operate at least several hundredpose serious hazards. Propellant and oxidizer are the chemical components that provide a missile’s thrust.

Iran’s Scudseries missiles use ‘unsymmetrical dimethylhydrazine (UDMH)’ as the propellant and ‘inhibited red fuming nitric acid (IRFNA)’ as the oxidizer. Both are liquids by nature, but even at room temperature they gradually volatilize.

The problem is that both UDMH and IRFNA are highly toxic. UDMH can inflict fatal damage on the liver and kidneys. It is also carcinogenic. By attacking the central nervous system, it can cause seizures and respiratory distress. IRFNA is no less dangerous: it dissolves human tissue, leading to outcomes such as blindness, and can cause pulmonary edema that fills the lungs with fluid and blocks breathing.

These substances are lethal not only to humans but to all living organisms. UDMH can wipe out soil microorganisms. Dissolving into water, it can trigger mass dieoffs of aquatic life. IRFNA turns river water strongly acidic, dissolving fish gills. In short, UDMH and IRFNA can lay waste to entire ecosystems. Because of these risks, Western countries such as the United States do not use UDMH and IRFNA.

However, video material examined by CEOBS showed towering columns of smoke at Iran’s Tabriz and Zanjan bases, where large numbers of Scudtype missiles are likely stored. This suggests powerful explosions or fires. With storage facilities at the bases destroyed, it cannot be ruled out that UDMH and IRFNA leaked into the environment.

CEOBS also warned of marine pollution from oil spills. In response to U.S. attacks, Iran has targeted civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, especially oil tankers.

CEOBS noted that “in a conflict, even if a tanker is hit at sea, it is difficult to mount a rapid emergency response,” adding that “the risk of crude oil spills increases.” As of the 3rd, at least five tankers had been attacked, according to CEOBS. In some cases, large fires were observed aboard the vessels.

On the 4th, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed it had set more than ten tankers ablaze. With Iran declaring its intent to continue attacking tankers, the likelihood of marine pollution is rising further.

After being struck by the United States, Iran also hit Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery with drones. When oil burns, harmful substances such as nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and dioxins are emitted in the smoke. CEOBS warned that “the smoke can ride the wind and spread across multiple regions.”

If Iran intensifies attacks on onshore oil facilities across the Middle East, the possibility of severe crossborder air pollution cannot be ruled out, suggesting that heightened tensions among regional countries will persist for the time being.