The United States·Israel are reportedly discussing a plan to deploy special forces to Iran to secure highly enriched uranium held by Iran, amid growing indications that the nuclear material has been moved to a more clandestine site.

Bloomberg reported on the 8th (local time) that President Donald Trump is reviewing a plan to deploy special forces to secure the 60% enriched uranium, as the likelihood has grown that 440㎏ of it has been moved elsewhere. If further enrichment were carried out, 450㎏ of 60% enriched uranium would be enough to produce more than ten nuclear weapons within weeks. Iran also possesses over 8000㎏ of low-enriched uranium.

The Trump administration had said that when the United States bombed Iran's Isfahan·Fordow·Natanz nuclear facilities last June, the highly enriched uranium stored there was buried deep underground along with the rubble of collapsed buildings, leaving it out of reach even for Iran. However, U.S. intelligence agencies told the New York Times (NYT) that Iran has succeeded in opening a very narrow access passage down to the buried facility and can now reach the highly enriched uranium.

According to U.S. government estimates, Iran's highly enriched uranium could be divided among roughly 16 cylinders about 36 inches (about 91 cm) tall, and each cylinder weighs only about 25㎏, light enough to be carried by hand. In fact, Bloomberg reported that several weeks before the United States·Israel began strikes on Iran on the 28th of last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) observed sustained activity outside a tunnel built in hills near Isfahan. The NYT also reported that analysis of satellite images taken in February showed large-scale earthmoving at multiple tunnel entrances.

Bloomberg noted that before last year's U.S. strikes, the IAEA visited Iran's nuclear facilities more than once a day to monitor the highly enriched uranium, but after the strikes the material's whereabouts became unclear, making the hunt for its hiding place more complex. In addition, following the latest air raid, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had issued a fatwa (a decree by a religious leader or an interpretation of Islamic law) banning weapons of mass destruction including nuclear arms, died, raising the possibility that his successor could formally rescind the anti-nuclear fatwa.

The Trump administration's shift from its initial stance of no ground troop deployments to considering sending special forces appears driven by concern that the highly enriched uranium could be dispersed and hidden permanently, or that hardliners in Iran may accelerate development of nuclear weapons to confront the United States·Israel.

A Trump administration official told Axios that if special operations forces succeed in securing the highly enriched uranium, two options are under review: completely removing it from Iran, or deploying nuclear experts on site to dilute the uranium. Accordingly, there is discussion of involving IAEA-affiliated scientists in the special forces mission.

The biggest challenge to carrying out any operation is first to pinpoint the exact location of the highly enriched uranium. If it is buried deep beneath Isfahan, how to gain access there is another problem.

Axios reported that, for this reason, an actual operation would likely be executed only when it is judged that the Iranian military's ability to respond has been severely degraded. Earlier, when asked by reporters whether the military might be sent to secure the nuclear material, President Trump said, “Not right now. Perhaps later we could do that,” keeping the possibility open, while also adding, “If we do that, they will be so badly damaged that they will not even be able to conduct a ground war.”

A senior official also told the NYT that special operations are not yet included in the U.S. government's plans for responding to the war with Iran. The NYT analyzed that publicly mentioning ground operations could be part of a negotiation strategy intended to pressure Iran to give up the uranium.