With midterms approaching, Trump fears backlash over high oil prices… first clash of views between the two countries
Experts flag potential for widening rifts over Iranian regime change and war-ending plans
“Trump, stop the war” Protest in Boston On the 8th (local time) in Boston, Massachusetts, participants in an International Women’s Day march hold placards opposing the Donald Trump administration’s war with Iran. AFP Yonhap News
Reports say the United States, startled by how much stronger than expected Israel’s strikes on Iranian oil depots were, expressed its displeasure to Israel. As the war between the U.S.-Israel side and Iran enters its tenth day, analysts say differences between the United States and Israel over the war’s direction and objectives are surfacing.
According to the U.S. online outlet Axios, Washington was taken aback that Israel struck roughly 30 oil depots inside Iran on the 8th (local time), saying the scope was wider than expected.
An Israeli government official said that after Israel’s strikes on Iran’s oil depots proceeded the previous evening, the United States sent Israel a message laced with profanity asking, “What on earth are you doing?” A U.S. government official said the U.S. military was very surprised once it understood how extensive the attack was.
The Donald Trump administration is reportedly worried that images of burning oil depots could unsettle markets, drive international oil prices even higher, and channel voter anger over high prices toward itself. One adviser to President Trump told Axios, “President Trump does not like this attack,” adding, “It makes people think about rising gasoline prices.”
Axios described Israel’s latest strikes as the first instance of disagreement between the U.S. and Israel since the start of the war with Iran, and predicted that at high-level talks the two sides would discuss what the United States expects from this war and the issue at hand.
Experts do not expect this to be the last time the U.S. and Israel diverge over the war’s trajectory. The two have envisioned different scenarios for Iran’s next leadership. Israel believes that if the current Iranian system remains intact, Iran will eventually rebuild its nuclear and missile programs, and thus treats ‘the collapse of the Iranian regime’ as a nonnegotiable end goal of this war. By contrast, President Trump has hinted he could accept as a successor even a figure from within the current regime, if that person were willing to forgo enriched uranium and cede part of Iran’s oil industry to the United States.
The two leaders may also fail to see eye to eye on when and how to end the war. Israel sought to expand regional conflicts on its own, outside U.S. control, during its strikes on Iran in June last year and on Syria in July that year. At the time, the White House aired its frustration, saying, “Bibi (the nickname of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) acts like a crazy person and always messes everything up.”
Jeremy Bowen, the BBC’s international news editor, said, “Netanyahu would actually welcome turmoil and crisis inside Iran, so long as it does not directly affect Israel, because if Gulf states are preoccupied with Iran’s turmoil, they will not be in a position to threaten Israel.” He added, “Trump, by contrast, has much to lose: with the November midterms approaching, he must worry about gasoline prices and, as a global power, also maintain relations with the Gulf states.” He warned, “There is a risk that Trump will find it impossible to exit this war on terms he wants.”
In a phone interview with The Times of Israel that day, President Trump said he would decide when and how to end the war, while noting that Prime Minister Netanyahu would also have a say. Asked whether Netanyahu would have a say when setting the end date, Trump said, “It will be a somewhat mutual decision,” adding, “I will weigh all the factors and decide at the appropriate time.” When asked whether Israel could continue the war with Iran even after the United States halts its airstrikes, he sidestepped the question but said, “I do not think that will be necessary.”