On the 9th (local time), U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the war with Iran “will end soon.” Although this is interpreted as a notable shift from his previously hard-line stance of pressing Iran for ‘unconditional surrender,’ he simultaneously delivered an ultra-hardline message that strikes on Iran could continue. Many assess that, considering the spike in oil prices and political backlash, his contradictory remarks have highlighted uncertainty surrounding the war.

At a news conference held that day at the Doral resort in Florida, Trump said about the military operation against Iran, “We are winning very decisively. We are far ahead of schedule,” and added, “It will end soon.” When asked by reporters about the timing for ending the operation, he replied, “Very soon(very soon).” At a Republican event earlier at the same venue, he also said the war “will end fairly quickly,” and that it would be a “short journey (operation).” Unlike his earlier position that “we expected it (the operation) to take 4 to 5 weeks, but it does not matter how long it takes,” he mentioned the possibility of ending the war.

There is analysis that the shock from the jump in oil prices and the associated political burden influenced these messages. CNN reported that after the Trump administration began the war with Iran, it fell into ‘panic’ over an oil price surge that exceeded expectations. As international oil prices at one point approached $120 per barrel and the market swung more sharply than expected, concern grew that the war could spread into adverse effects across the U.S. economy. This was seen as a warning sign in particular for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections.

Seemingly mindful of voter anxiety, Trump also emphasized that day, “We will end all threats at once. As a result, oil and gas prices for American households will come down.” The previously soaring international oil price fell back into the $80s, helped by his remarks and expectations of intervention by major countries. Finance ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) issued a joint statement saying they could take necessary measures, including releasing strategic petroleum reserves, to respond to the surge.

With fears of escalation growing after the selection of a hard-line successor in Iran, some speculate that Trump may be seeking an ‘exit strategy.’ That day, he repeatedly emphasized results of the war, including the sinking of 51 Iranian vessels and strikes on more than 5,000 missile facilities, and said he had a good call with President Vladimir Putin and that he wanted to help regarding the situation with Iran. Achievements against Iran and mediation efforts by Russia could give Trump grounds to declare victory and end the war.

The Wall Street Journal reported that “some aides, worried that a spike in oil prices and a prolonged conflict could produce a political backlash, privately urged Trump to seek an exit strategy.” They were said to have advised him to present a clear plan for how to pull the United States out of the war and to emphasize that the military objectives had largely been achieved.

However, because Trump did not mention a clear timeline for ending the war or an exit plan, uncertainty surrounding the Iran war is likely to continue for some time. In a speech to Republican lawmakers that day, he also applied pressure, saying, “We have already won in many respects, but we have not won enough,” and, “We will not let up (the offensive) until the enemy is decisively defeated.”

Later on his social network Truth Social, Trump escalated his warning level, saying, “If Iran takes steps to block the flow of oil in the Strait of Hormuz, it will be hit by the United States 20 times harder than ever before.” He added, “It will make it virtually impossible for Iran to rebuild as a nation,” and stressed, “Death, fire, and fury will rule them.”

Regarding the mixed statements Trump issued over the course of a day, The New York Times assessed that “they appeared to be a balanced message aimed at assuring an unstable oil market and investors by signaling that the war is entering its final stage, while also suggesting that U.S.-Israeli attacks will continue until Iran completely loses the ability and will to pursue nuclear weapons.” Time magazine wrote that “they highlighted the fact that the course of a conflict that has rapidly spread across the Middle East remains uncertain and heightened concerns in Washington that it could deepen into a longer and more lethal war.”

Uncertainty is also seen to be heightened by the variable of what strategy Iran will pursue going forward, after selecting Mojtaba Khamenei as the next Supreme Leader and moving to consolidate its ranks. Trump said he was “disappointed” by the news of Mojtaba being selected, but avoided answering a question about whether he could face a ‘decapitation operation’ fate like the ayatollah. Aiming at Trump's remarks, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that day, “It is us (not the United States) who decide the end of the war,” and warned, “If attacks by the United States and Israel continue, not even 1ℓ of oil exports will be allowed from this region.”