There is growing speculation that Iran has already begun laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world’s oil shipments pass.

John Healey, the UK Minister of the Ministry of National Defense, told reporters at the British military headquarters on the 12th (local time) that “the relevant reports are becoming increasingly clear” and that “there is a high possibility that Iran has begun laying mines in the (Hormuz) Strait,” Bloomberg reported.

The UK defense minister’s remarks came amid conflicting intelligence over whether Iran has installed mines.

Earlier, the U.S. think tank the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) estimated that Iran had already laid 10 mines in the Strait of Hormuz. CNN also reported on the 10th, citing U.S. intelligence sources, that Iran had installed dozens of mines in the strait over the past few days.

However, President Trump said he had not received reports that Iran had installed mines in the Strait of Hormuz and argued that oil tankers and other merchant ships should pass through the strait.

The U.S. military recently unleashed a ‘preemptive’ offensive to stop Iran from laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. Central Command announced that it had recently attacked and destroyed more than 30 mine-laying vessels.

Once floating mines drift at sea, they are difficult to completely clear until hostilities have fully ended.

Minister Healey said, “In a conflict, clearing mines in any waters is extremely difficult.”

Caitlin Talmadge, a political science professor at MIT, also told Bloomberg that “mine clearance is an activity feasible in peacetime and is rarely executable during war,” adding, “mine clearance usually happens after a war ends; otherwise, the ships and helicopters conducting it become highly vulnerable (to enemy attack).”

If Iran has indeed laid mines, it would likely secure strong leverage by threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz to damage the global economy and pressure President Trump.

Ayatollah Seyyed Mojtaba Khamenei, elected as Iran’s new Supreme Leader, stressed in his first official statement on the 12th (local time) broadcast on state TV that “we must continue to use the leverage of closing the Strait of Hormuz as a means of pressuring the enemies (the United States·Israel).”

The Wall Street Journal assessed that “mines are a simple weapon that gives Iran enormous power to inflict major damage on the global economy.”

The U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) assessed that, as of 2019, Iran possesses more than 5,000 mines and can deploy them quickly with the help of small fast boats.