Some people are hoarding pay-as-you-throw bags due to the fallout from the war involving the United States, Israel, and Iran. As instability in the supply of petrochemical products has grown, anxiety has spread that “even plastic bags might become difficult to obtain.”

To get to the point, there is no need to stockpile pay-as-you-throw bags. On the 25th, Kyunghyang Shinmun confirmed with relevant government ministries and major local governments that the likelihood of an immediate price increase is low. Even if supply disruptions occur, it would not lead to a situation in which trash cannot be thrown out.

The waste we generate is divided into the phases of ‘set-out’ and ‘treatment’. Pay-as-you-throw bags are merely a ‘management tool’ at the set-out phase. The system is not structured so that trash cannot be discarded without the bags. Ultimately, the key question is ‘how to manage set-out and impose costs’.

Let us first look at the current supply of bags. Seoul has about four months of supply, Incheon about 200 days, Daejeon about one year, Daegu at least three months and up to one year, Busan about 350 days, Ulsan about two months, Gwangju about 3~4 months, and Seongnam in Gyeonggi at least six months and up to one year. Jeju Province says it has stock of raw materials sufficient for at least three months.

Do you think 2~3 months is too little? Even in normal times, it is standard to maintain roughly this level of inventory. Storage space is limited by district, and bags are not produced in one big batch but continuously at regular intervals. In other words, the perception that supplies will be ‘cut off right away’ does not match the facts.

The pay-as-you-throw system imposes fees based on the amount of waste set out. The cost of waste treatment is included in the price of the bags. If the price of petrochemical raw materials that go into the bags rises, production unit costs can increase.

However, most districts set bag prices by ordinance. To raise prices, the ordinance must be amended. Given the need to consider the burden of higher living costs on residents, local governments say a sharp price hike in the short term is unlikely.

Put simply, higher raw material prices do not automatically translate into higher consumer prices for ‘pay-as-you-throw bags’.

If you are worried, “What if pay-as-you-throw bags disappear?”, there are already answers. If supply problems arise, various alternatives are possible, such as ‘placing trash in ordinary bags and setting it out at designated locations’, ‘operating fixed-point collection in single-family residential areas’, or ‘local governments distributing plain bags and collecting them after verification’. In some outlying or island areas, these methods are already in use. Depending on circumstances, allowing unpaid set-out for a set period could also be considered.

If you are thinking, ‘Should I buy now and resell?’, you should drop the idea. The resale or secondhand trading of pay-as-you-throw bags is prohibited. Under the Waste Management Act, selling bags in person-to-person deals or on secondhand platforms can result in a fine of up to 3 million won.

Hoarding stems from ‘anxiety’. The problem is that this anxiety can actually make the situation worse. If people rush to stockpile, distribution volumes fall and shortages can emerge. Local government officials say, “This is not a situation to worry about, but we fear hoarding could disrupt supply.” An official at the Climate, Energy and Environment Bureau also pointed out that “excessive anxiety can make the problem grow.”

At the root of the anxiety is the fact that we rely on petrochemical productsdepletable resourcesfar more than we think. Hoarding shows how quickly that anxiety can spread into our everyday lives. Alongside reducing dependence on single-use plastics, policy discussions appear necessary to enhance the overall stability of energy and resource supplies.