The United States and Iran are accelerating behind-the-scenes efforts to hold a second face-to-face negotiation this weekend. Reports are also emerging that there has been some progress in the once-stalled negotiations on the Iranian nuclear program. Analysts say that for a second meeting to lead to a final agreement, President Donald Trump will need the ‘justification’ of having concluded a nuclear deal better than that of former President Barack Obama.

On the 15th (local time), White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said, “We remain committed to negotiations and meetings (with Iran),” adding, “These dialogues are productive and are continuing now.” She added, “We view the outlook positively.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei also said that day, “We are exchanging messages with the United States through Pakistan.”

However, both the United States and Iran said that whether to hold a meeting and whether to extend the truce have not yet been finalized. Earlier, Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that neither side wants a resumption of fighting and that they are considering extending the truce by two weeks to secure more time for end-of-war negotiations.

Even so, the mood for a second meeting appears to be ripening. In particular, it is notable that Pakistan’s de facto top power holder, Army Chief Asim Munir, visited Iran in person and met with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The Associated Press suggested that he may have gone to coordinate a preliminary agenda with Tehran while carrying the final proposal presented by the United States. Al Jazeera, citing sources, reported that “a significant breakthrough has been achieved in the nuclear talks.”

If a second round of talks resumes, the British daily the Guardian noted that President Trump would face the challenge of pushing through demands higher than those in the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement (JCPOA), which was concluded by Barack Obama and from which he later withdrew. Otherwise, he could be engulfed by criticism asking, “Why did we fight this war?”

Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, a U.S. think tank, told Al Jazeera, “For President Trump, the nuclear issue is central and everything else is secondary,” adding, “He simply wants to say he negotiated a better deal than Obama and then step back.”

This is why Washington is demanding a 20-year or longer ban on Iranian uranium enrichment. The main reason he condemned the JCPOA as “a terrible and one-sided agreement that should never have been made” was that it included a sunset clause that gradually eased enrichment limits and fully lifted them after 20 years.

However, unlike then, mutual trust between the two countries has now been shattered, and the Strait of Hormuz has emerged as a new Iranian bargaining lever, making negotiations likely to be more difficult.

Even so, Oliver Meier, a nuclear disarmament expert, told Deutsche Welle that “there are also favorable aspects because many nuclear facilities have been destroyed,” adding, “Iran may be willing to accept that the destroyed facilities will be excluded from the scope of negotiations.” In fact, Al Jazeera reported that since the U.S.-Israeli bombing of nuclear facilities in June 2025, Iran has not been able to operate a single centrifuge.

Vali Nasr, an Iran expert at Johns Hopkins University, also said on the Pakistani broadcaster Express 24 that the facts that “the first meeting lasted more than 21 hours,” and that after the talks the Iranian foreign minister said they were ‘almost at an agreement,’ indicate that a basic blueprint is already in place. He added, “The key question is whether the United States will give up parts of the wording that says ‘even 0% enrichment cannot be allowed,’ and find a diplomatic way to acknowledge the right of Iran to enrichment while ensuring it does not actually enrich.”

Nasr said, “Sharp disputes remain between the two sides, including control over the Strait of Hormuz and how to handle 440㎏ of highly enriched uranium, but at least they seem to believe all of these issues are negotiable.”

Separately from the back-channel talks, the United States and Iran also continued to apply heavy pressure on each other that day. President Trump shared on social media a U.S. Central Command video broadcasting a warning that force would be used against those who do not cooperate with a maritime blockade of Iran. There were also reports that the U.S. aircraft carrier George H.W. Bush, carrying 6,000 personnel, will soon arrive in the Middle East.

In response, Iran warned that if the U.S. maritime blockade continues, it will blockade not only the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman but also the Red Sea. This was the first time the Iranian military had officially mentioned the additional blockade of key maritime trade routes such as the Red Sea.