U.S., despite optimism about ‘a deal’, launches ‘Economic Rage’ operation
Resumption of sanctions on Iranian crude, possible ‘secondary sanctions’ on Chinese banks as well
Iranian military issues first warning of a ‘Red Sea blockade’…a pressure tactic to boost bargaining power
Cargo ships are anchored in the Persian Gulf near the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters Yonhap News
It is reported that Iran, which is effectively blockading the Strait of Hormuz, has proposed to the United States a limited reopening of the strait as one of the conditions for a ceasefire agreement. With U.S. President Donald Trump optimistic about a deal with Iran, Tehran is seen as signaling it could make some concessions to enable talks. Still, while the U.S. and Iran continue behind-the-scenes groundwork for negotiations, they are publicly trading threats, pursuing a dual hard-and-soft strategy.
Reuters reported on the 15th (local time), citing a source familiar with the Iranian government, that in recent talks with the United States, Iran proposed not attacking ships transiting Omani territorial waters within the Strait of Hormuz. The strait between Iran and Oman is only about 34㎞ wide, and Tehran appears to have indicated it would open and guarantee passage along the route closer to Oman.
However, the source did not specify whether Iran would also agree to clear mines in those waters or allow free passage for all vessels, including those of its enemy Israel. The source added that whether the proposal succeeds depends on whether the United States is prepared to accept Iran’s demands, which was a key condition for finding a breakthrough regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
A Western source likewise said, “A plan for the free passage of vessels via Omani territorial waters was discussed,” but added it was unclear whether there had been a response from the U.S. side. The White House and Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.
Iran’s proposal is notable as its first step back from the hard line it has taken over recent weeks in asserting control over the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters assessed that the proposal could be a first step toward returning the strait to the ‘previous order’ under which free passage was possible before the war broke out. According to Iran’s state-run IRNA news agency, Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, also said, “Even after the Iranian delegation returned (from Islamabad, Pakistan) on the 12th, there have been several exchanges of messages with the United States via Pakistan.”
At the same time, Iran escalated its warnings, saying that if the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz continues, it could extend the blockade to the Red Sea. In a statement that day, Major General Ali Abdollahi of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Military Headquarters, which oversees Iran’s armed forces, said, “If the U.S. blockade measures continue, we will take strong military action,” adding, “Iran’s powerful military will tolerate no import or export activity passing through the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman, or the Red Sea.”
Amid ongoing concerns that the U.S. maritime blockade of Iran could lead to a blockage of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at the entrance to the Red Sea, this is the first time Iran’s military has officially mentioned an additional blockade of key maritime trade routes such as the Red Sea. Some interpret the military’s hard line as a tactic by Tehran to strengthen its bargaining power ahead of a second round of talks.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent answers questions during a press briefing at the White House in Washington on the 15th (local time). EPA Yonhap News
The United States is likewise ratcheting up pressure on Iran. While President Trump said a deal with Iran is likely to be reached by the end of this month, he posted on the social network Truth Social a video of a warning broadcast by U.S. Central Command stating that force would be used against those who do not cooperate with the maritime blockade of Iran. Although he offered no further explanation, the move is seen as an attempt to pressure Tehran to conclude a deal.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent formally announced that day the resumption of sanctions on Iranian crude and warned that secondary sanctions could be imposed on third countries such as China that trade with Iran. “We announced an ‘Economic Rage’ operation against Iran the day before,” Bessent said. “If you are purchasing Iranian oil or if Iranian funds are deposited in banks, we are prepared to apply the very strong measure of secondary sanctions.” He continued, “Iran should understand that the financial blow will be on par with what they have witnessed in our military operations.”
Bessent added that warning letters had been sent to two Chinese banks stating that if they were found to be facilitating Iran-related transactions, they could be subject to secondary sanctions. Secondary sanctions also penalize third parties that transact with designated entities, and are seen as a sign that the U.S. government is tightening measures to choke off Iran’s funding. The Associated Press assessed, “The Trump administration is preparing to shift to a strategy that emphasizes economic pressure rather than relying solely on military means to force Iran to yield.”