Analysts say that Iran’s reversal of its decision to reclose the Strait of Hormuz reflects divisions between hardliners and moderates. Hardliners, coalesced around the military, have insisted that Iran should not engage in negotiations and strongly oppose U.S.-proposed terms for ending the war, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and abandoning uranium enrichment. Iranian hardliners are expected to remain a variable in the negotiations to end the war.

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 18th (local time) that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fired on merchant vessels and closed the strait the day after Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced its reopening, analyzing it as “an act that revealed divisions within Iran.”

According to the WSJ, a person identifying himself as ‘IRGC Navy’ radioed merchant ships in the Gulf, saying, “The strait is still closed and you must obtain our permission to pass.” He added, “We will open it only on the orders of our leader ‘Imam Khamenei’ (Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei), not because of some idiot’s tweet,” directly criticizing Minister Araghchi, who had announced the reopening of the strait.

When Araghchi announced on X the previous day that he would allow passage through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian hardliners immediately pushed back. Lawmaker Morteza Mahmoudi wrote on X that “If it were not for the exceptional circumstances of war, we would have impeached Minister Araghchi over his tweet,” arguing that his hasty announcement lowered international oil prices and handed the Donald Trump administration a ‘strategic gift.’

According to senior advisers to paramilitary organizations based in Tehran, the IRGC is extremely angered that Minister Araghchi announced the reopening of the strait without prior coordination with them. Experts assess that the ‘factional infighting’ intensified after former Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who had held Iran’s leadership together, was assassinated.

Hardliners label their government’s engagement in talks with the United States as “humiliation” and oppose terms for ending the war such as reopening the Strait of Hormuz and abandoning the development of highly enriched uranium. Saeed Jalili, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), targeted the negotiating team by calling the possibility of ‘abandoning uranium enrichment’ mentioned by President Trump “selling out the country.” On reopening the strait, hardliners say it would be “abandoning maritime sovereignty.”

Such infighting is darkening the outlook for a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Mohamed Amersi, a global adviser to the Wilson Center, told the WSJ, “The West believes that negotiating with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs will solve the problem, but in Iran it is ultimately the side holding the guns, drones, and fast boats that wins the argument.”

The United States and Iran continue contacts for talks to end the war. Citing Iranian sources, CNN reported that the two negotiating teams plan to hold talks on the 20th in Islamabad, Pakistan. However, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, speaker of the parliament and head of Iran’s negotiating delegation, said on the 19th that “there has been some progress in the talks so far,” but that “there is still a long way to go to a final agreement.”