Behind the KOSPI index breaking the 7,000 mark for the first time on the 6th are a rally in semiconductor stocks driven by expanded AI (artificial intelligence) investment by U.S. big tech companies and the semiconductor super cycle. There are also observations that an era of a ‘money move (capital shift)’ toward stocks instead of real estate, pursued by the Lee Jae Myung administration, is arriving. Accordingly, some argue that if earnings and liquidity support it, the KOSPI, having cleared 7,000, could surpass 8,000 within the year and remain sustainable, but the outlook is not all ‘rosy’. At the same time, there are voices concerned about overheating and heightened volatility stemming from a semiconductor-centered spike.

Brokerages assess that the KOSPI’s move above 7,000 was not merely a liquidity-fueled rally but a market led by the earnings of domestic semiconductor companies.

As U.S. big tech companies expanded AI infrastructure investment, demand for memory semiconductors surged, and domestic chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix posted an ‘earnings surprise’ in the first quarter this year following last year. With expectations that the semiconductor super cycle will continue for some time, shares of the semiconductor ‘two top’ companies are also soaring.

Operating profits of KOSPI-listed companies are also rising. According to Yonhap Infomax, the 2026 consolidated operating-profit consensus (the market’s average forecast) for 335 KOSPI-listed firms for which at least three brokerages provided estimates over the past three months currently stands at 809.737 trillion won, a 55% surge from three months ago.

In particular, with the 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of KOSPI-listed firms only in the low 7x range, some see ample room for further gains. Brokerages judge that earnings are rising faster than share prices. A break above the 8,000 level within the year is therefore not a far-fetched projection.

Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, said, “The KOSPI is showing an earnings-driven market in which the uptrend continues based on earnings and fundamental momentum,” adding, “Through valuation (price relative to earnings) normalization, the door is open for entry into the 8,000 level.”

As the KOSPI rises, the money-move phenomenon is also gathering pace. The flow of funds is shifting more strongly from deposits to equities.

According to the Bank of Korea’s Economic Statistics System, the number of time-deposit accounts with balances not exceeding 100 million won at the end of last year fell to 21,629,000, the lowest in six and a half years. This suggests that funds parked at banks, including money set aside for home purchases, are flowing en masse into the stock market.

Individual stock accounts are also increasing. Data from the Korea Financial Investment Association show that the number of active stock-trading accounts stood at 105,090,000 as of the end of last month, up 6.9% from the end of last year. Investor depositscash waiting to enter the marketalso rose from 88 trillion won at the end of last year to 125 trillion won.

Parents opening accounts for their children is also on the rise. An analysis by Daishin Securities of new account openings by age shows that, compared with January this year, account openings among ages 0-9 and teenagers increased by 119.2% and 101.1%, respectively, last month.

More people are naming stocks as the best investment this year. According to the ‘2026 KB Real Estate Report’ released by KB Financial Group’s Management Research Institute, high-net-worth individuals picked stocks (34%) as the most promising asset this year, followed by real estate (23%) and funds (16%).

With the KOSPI surging in a short span, some warn of overheating. As of today, the KOSPI has jumped about 75% from the start of the year and about 188% from a year ago. The KOSPI 200 volatility index VKOSPI, Korea’s version of the fear gauge, also once again broke above the 60 level today, marking its highest this month.

GuruFocus, a U.S. investment-analysis platform that uses the so-called ‘Buffett indicator’ to gauge overheating in major stock markets, also assessed the Korean stock market as ‘highly overvalued’. The Buffett indicatormarket capitalization divided by gross domestic product (GDP)typically views above 100% as overvalued and above 120% as overheated; Korea stood at 215.24 as of today.

Concentration in semiconductor stocks is also cited as a factor that could amplify market volatility. With the market caps of semiconductor bellwethers Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix accounting for about 40% of the KOSPI’s total, there are concerns that the domestic market could swing depending on semiconductor conditions and corporate earnings.

Han Ji-young, a researcher at Kiwoom Securities, said, “After May, the KOSPI outlook will differ in strength depending on whether next year’s earnings expectations are revised up, maintained, or lowered in the second half of this year.”