Although the government concluded that the explosion and fire aboard the HMM Namu while it was anchored in the Strait of Hormuz resulted from a strike by an unidentified aerial vehicle, questions remain unresolved over the key issues of who carried out the attack, why, and by what means. The government plans to conduct additional detailed analysis of engine debris from the vehicle recovered at the scene. Among experts, the possibility that Iran was the perpetrator has been raised, while opinions diverged on the intent of the attack.

Based on Kyunghyang Shinmun reporting on the 11th, experts largely agree that this was a deliberate attack targeting the Namu. This is because two aerial vehicles struck the same part of the hull twice at roughly one-minute intervals. Shin Jong-woo, secretary-general of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, “Striking the same point twice in succession means it was targeted while its position was fixed.”

The government is taking a cautious stance, but among experts, Iran is mentioned as a possible perpetrator. It is also suggested that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps may have carried out the attack on its own without coordination with the Iranian government. Jang Ji-hyang, director of the Middle East Research Center at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Iran wants to do well in nuclear negotiations, but the Revolutionary Guard is fragmented by region, so the chain of command is not functioning well,” adding, “It could have been individual actions by hardliners within the Revolutionary Guard.”

Earlier, the state-run Press TV of Iran said on the 6th (local time), two days after the Namu was struck, that “targeting one South Korean ship is a clear signal that Iran will defend its sovereignty through physical action.” The Iranian Embassy in South Korea on the 6th denied official involvement by the Iranian military, while also leaving room by saying, “Unintended incidents can occur.”

If Iran was the perpetrator, another analysis is that the intent may have been to pressure South Korea not to participate in the U.S.-led Project Freedom operation. Project Freedom is a U.S. military operation to assist the evacuation of ships trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, launched on the 4th (local time), the day the Namu was struck.

Seong Il-gwang, a professor at the Euromena Institute of Sogang University, said on Yonhap News TV, “Since ships were in a situation where they could escape together with U.S. warships, Iran would have needed to send a warning message,” adding, “Whether deliberately or at random, they may have attacked a South Korean ship to create a test case.” Yu Ji-hoon, head of external cooperation at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, said, “It can be interpreted as a limited attack intended to render a vessel inoperable rather than sink it completely, maximizing political and psychological pressure.”

Regarding the weapon used in the attack on the Namu, both a suicide drone and an anti-ship missile are being discussed as possibilities. Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, “An attack by an anti-ship or cruise missile would produce a larger breach than this,” adding, “The Namu appears to have been struck by a warhead weighing under 100 kg, suggesting a suicide drone.” The government announced the previous day that a breach 5 meters wide and 7 meters deep had formed on the left aft outer plating of the Namu where it was struck.

By contrast, Secretary-General Shin raised the possibility of a surface-to-ship missile, saying, “The fact that the outer plate at the damaged area on the Namu protruded outward means the vehicle penetrated the hull and then exploded inside.” He added, “A drone that collides directly with a target and explodes tears the hull inward.” Kwon Yong-su, professor emeritus at the Korea National Defense University, said, “Given the small size of the breach and its location about 1 to 1.5 meters above the waterline, it looks like a short-range ship-to-ship cruise missile that flies hugging within 1.2 meters of the sea surface.”