Major foreign media in the United States, Japan, and other key countries on the 3rd predicted an advantage for the ruling Democratic Party in the nationwide local elections and National Assembly by-elections. They cited the rise of the KOSPI as the backdrop for higher approval ratings for the Lee Jae Myung administration, and identified the 12·3 emergency martial law and the aftermath of the impeachment of former president Yoon Suk-yeol as factors behind weakness for the People Power Party.

The Associated Press (AP) on the 2nd (local time) described this election as “a test to gauge public sentiment on state affairs as this administration marks one year since its launch,” and reported that “the Democratic Party is expected to secure more seats than the People Power Party.” It further assessed that “the People Power Party remains in turmoil even now, about a year and a half after the failed imposition of martial law by former president Yoon Suk-yeol.”

The New York Times (NYT) characterized this local vote as “a referendum on the popularity of President Lee Jae Myung and a crucial test for the beleaguered conservative opposition,” adding that “a major victory for the progressive camp is anticipated.”

NYT explained that although the People Power Party won a landslide in the local elections four years ago, the standing of the conservative camp has weakened since former president Yoon declared emergency martial law at the end of 2024. It went on to evaluate that since taking office, President Lee has maintained high approval ratings on the back of pragmatic diplomacy and a strong stock market.

The Japanese newspaper Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) also stated that the ruling party holds an advantage in opinion polls, citing the upward trend of the KOSPI as a key backdrop. As reasons for difficulties faced by the People Power Party, it pointed to the emergency martial law and the impeachment of former president Yoon.

However, Nikkei noted that “elections in South Korea often see the balance shift sharply at the last minute due to unforeseen variables or rallying among supporters,” and mentioned the possibility of consolidation among opposition supporters despite the ruling party advantage.

The Mainichi Shimbun paid particular attention to the Busan Buk-gap by-election held that day. It reported that if Han Dong-hoon, former People Power Party leader running as an independent, wins, “it could determine the course of the conservative camp, which has remained in a slump.”