Democratic Party ahead in 25 of 31 in Gyeonggi
In Chungcheong, unlike four years ago, the ruling party holds the edge
In most of TK, ‘People Power aligned’ wins are likely
Across Honam, independents and the Innovation Party in close contests

In the elections for chiefs of 227 cities, counties, and districts nationwide, the Democratic Party is performing well in Seoul. In many areas outside the Yeongnam region, the party is also showing an advantageous trend.

Even in the basic local chief races, the momentum of the so called “insurrection judgment” appears to be at work, but with candidate strength and local issues intertwined, there are not a few places locked in tight contests.

As of 12:20 a.m. on the 4th, according to the National Election Commission tally (24.37% counted), Democratic Party candidates were ahead in 23 of the 25 autonomous districts in Seoul. People Power was ahead in 2. However, with the low count rate, the overall landscape could change significantly.

In the 2022 local elections, People Power won 17, while the Democratic Party held only 8. Through this election, the balance of power in Seoul's autonomous districts is likely to be reshaped in favor of the Democratic Party.

Among the 18 incumbent Seoul district mayors seeking another term this time (11 People Power, 6 Democratic, 1 Reform Party), fortunes appear mixed. Of them, four Democrats, including Park Jun-hee in Gwanak, Lee Seung-ro in Seongbuk, Ryu Gyeong-gi in Jungnang, and Kim Mi-kyung in Eunpyeong, are likely to win a third term.

People Power is expected to lead in the three Gangnam districts of Seocho, Gangnam, and Songpa, traditional conservative strongholds. In Seocho and Songpa, incumbents Jeon Seong-su and Seo Gang-seok are seeking reelection, and in Gangnam, Kim Hyun-gi, a former Seoul Metropolitan Council chair, is running. Despite an overall disadvantage, People Power has tried to hold ground by stressing real estate issues and the advantages of incumbency, but it is expected to cede many seats to the Democratic Party.

In Gyeonggi's 31 cities and counties, the Democratic Party is far ahead of People Power. At present, the Democratic Party holds the advantage in 25, People Power in 6. Four years ago, People Power took 22 to the Democratic Party 9 in a landslide, but this time the situation is the reverse.

People Power renominated most sitting chiefs to leverage the so called “incumbency premium” to the fullest, but it was not enough. The Democratic Party put the achievements of the Lee Jae Myung administration and governmental stability at the forefront, and secured an edge in many areas except traditional conservative strongholds.

In Chungcheong, the trend is the opposite of the last election, when People Power swept the region. The Democratic Party is strong in most areas. In all five districts of Daejeon, Democratic Party candidates hold the lead. In Jung and Yuseong, incumbent Democratic district chiefs are ahead. In Dong, Seo, and Daedeok as well, where People Power had held the district offices, Democratic candidates are leading.

In South Chungcheong, the Democratic Party is ahead in 10 of 15 cities and counties. In Cheonan, where the mayorship was left vacant after the previous mayor stepped down, Democratic candidate Jang Gi-su appears to be taking the lead over People Power candidate Park Chan-woo.

In North Chungcheong, the Democratic Party is ahead in 7 of 11. In particular, in Cheongju, Democratic candidate Lee Jang-seop is in a close race with People Power candidate Lee Beom-seok, who is seeking reelection. By contrast, People Power is maintaining an edge in only four places, including Boeun, Yeongdong, Goesan, and Danyang.

In South Jeolla, a Democratic stronghold, fierce contests are unfolding between Democratic candidates and independents or candidates from the Cho Kuk Innovation Party. In eight of the 22 cities and counties, including Gwangyang, Gangjin, Wando, Jindo, Sinan, Muan, Hampyeong, and Jangheung, Democratic candidates are struggling against strong challenges. In Gangjin, independent Kang Jin-won is ahead of the Democratic candidate. Places where Democratic candidates lead by a comfortable margin of more than 20 percentage points include Mokpo, Yeosu, Naju, Jangseong, Yeonggwang, Yeongam, Haenam, Hwasun, Goheung, and Gokseong.

In Gwangju, Democratic candidates are favored to win all five district offices. In Seogu and Namgu, where only one candidate each registered, the Democratic incumbents were confirmed elected by “uncontested” status.

In the 14 city and county chief races in North Jeolla, all Democratic candidates have either secured victory or are favored to, effectively sweeping the entire region.

In the 2022 local elections, the Democratic Party won 11 of the 14 in North Jeolla, but independents prevailed in Muju, Sunchang, and Imsil, denying a clean sweep. In this election, Hwang In-hong in Muju and Choi Young-il in Sunchang, who won as independents last time and later received Democratic nominations, secured reelection. In Imsil as well, where the three term limit left the race wide open, Han Deuk-su won, giving the Democratic Party all 14 city and county posts in North Jeolla.

In the “conservative heartland” of Daegu and North Gyeongsang, People Power or People Power aligned independents are favored in all 31 basic local races. With roughly 15 to 90 percent counted across the nine basic jurisdictions in Daegu, most People Power candidates, including in the five with incumbents, were tallied in front. The Democratic Party fielded candidates in every constituency for the first time in the era of direct local elections, but it appears unlikely to overcome the conservative tide.

In most parts of North Gyeongsang as well, smooth victories by People Power aligned candidates are expected. However, in this election there remains a possibility of a Democratic win in Andong. With about 60 percent counted, Democratic candidate Lee Sam-geol and People Power candidate Kwon Gi-chang are neck and neck for the lead. Factors cited include the fact that the city is the hometown of President Lee Jae Myung and legal risks facing Kwon.

In Busan, where People Power won all 16 constituencies in the last local elections four years ago, the Democratic Party is expected to make gains this time. Across the city, Democratic candidates are ahead of People Power candidates in districts such as Yeongdo, Nam, Buk, Haeundae, Saha, and Gangseo.

In Ulsan, Democratic candidates lead in 3 of 5. In Dong District, Progressive Party candidate Park Mun-ok is favored to win. With about 30 percent counted, Park had 52.08 percent of the vote. A Progressive Party candidate also won here four years ago.