While ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran remain stalled, the Middle East crisis has passed the 100-day mark since its outbreak. The government is averting an energy crunch by diversifying import sources for key resources such as crude oil and naphtha. However, many expect that even if a ceasefire is reached, it will take time for the soaring prices of fossil fuels to return to normal. Consequently, there are calls to prepare for what comes next by maintaining smooth relations with Russia.

According to industry sources on the 8th, the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy stated in a recent report that “the medium to long term ripple effects of this war are likely to last longer in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) market than in the crude oil market, particularly among Asian importers.” With Qatar, which had accounted for about 20% of global LNG production, having declared force majeure on long-term supply contracts with South Korea, competition between Asia and Europe to secure spot LNG is intensifying, making price increases unavoidable.

LNG prices have continued to soar since the war broke out. The LNG price benchmark ‘LNG Japan·Korea Marker’ stood at $18.77 per 1MMBtu (a unit of fuel) on the 5th. On February 27, just before the outbreak of the war, it was $10.70.

The institute stated that “this shock will not be confined to a short-term geopolitical event but will become a structural variable that triggers a reconfiguration of the LNG market over the medium to long term,” and, “we confirmed that the core criterion for South Korea energy procurement strategy should shift from price competitiveness to supply stability.”

It also pointed out that maintaining relations with Russia is necessary from an energy security perspective. Russia has been under sanctions by the United States and the European Union (EU) since its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and South Korea is participating as well. The institute assessed that “although Russia is constrained in the short term by sanctions and geopolitical risks, from the standpoint of energy security focused on diversifying nonMiddle East supplies, it remains a candidate that is difficult to exclude completely from medium to long term consideration.”

Data from the Korea International Trade Association show that even in 2022, when the RussiaUkraine war broke out, South Korea imported 1,961,818 t of Russian LNG. It imported 1,653,964 t in 2023, 2,115,949 t in 2024, and 2,468,170 t in 2025, representing around 5% of total import volumes each year. This year as well, it brought in 633,890 t between January and April. An energy industry official explained, “Although the volume is smaller than from Malaysia·Australia·Qatar·the United States, it is not something that can be ignored.”

Projections that Russia energy policy will be reorganized from Europe toward an Asia-centered approach are also lending weight to this argument. In a recent report, the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade projected that “Western economic sanctions stemming from the RussiaUkraine war are likely to further accelerate the reorientation of Russia energy export markets toward Asia.”

In particular, for natural gas, it noted that the Russian government is going all out, including moving up the timetable for construction of the ‘Power of Siberia 2 (PoS-2)’ pipeline, a project underway with China, and that this warrants close attention. The institute stated that “South Korea, which is vulnerable to risks originating in the Middle East, needs to respond with a multifaceted approach that goes beyond the geographic diversification of supply chains.”

Russia is becoming more important for crude oil supply and demand as well. According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the coalition of major oil producers known as ‘OPEC+’ decided the previous day to increase crude output by 188,000 barrels per day starting in July. It was the fourth consecutive month of production hikes. Russia is a member of OPEC+.

An energy industry official explained, “Assuming the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, an increase in Saudi output has little impact on crude oil supply and demand,” adding, “what matters more is an increase by countries such as Russia or Kazakhstan that can bring in crude without passing through the Strait of Hormuz.”