Lu Chao, one of China’s leading experts on the Korean Peninsula and Director of the Institute of American and East Asian Studies at Liaoning University, assessed that through President Xi Jinping’s visit to North Korea on the 8~9th, North KoreaChina relations have entered a new stage.

Lu predicted that “China will encourage North Korea’s participation in the international community and support improvements in the North Korean people’s economy and livelihoods.” He also said that “there will be more interaction and negotiations not only in the economic and trade fields but also in diplomacy,” adding that the ultimate goal of China’s Korean Peninsula strategy is “to maintain peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.”

In a phone interview with the Kyunghyang Shinmun on the 9th, he explained that the meaning of the “new starting point in North KoreaChina relations in step with the times,” which President Xi emphasized at his summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un the previous day, is “to share strategic objectives in addition to the existing friendship.” The ideas shared by North Korea and China are “opposition to international hegemonism, aggression, and interference in other countries, and advocacy of multilateralism.” This also includes North Korea supporting China’s positions on the Taiwan, Tibet, and Xinjiang issues.

Lu explained that the move by China and North Korea toward a relationship that shares strategic objectives stems from a combination of Chairman Kim’s external strategy and changes in the international situation. He said, “North Korea has actively pursued participation in the international community in recent years,” noting, “We have observed that cooperation and development with Russia have proceeded rapidly over the past two years.” He continued, “We determined that economic and trade development between North Korea and Russia does not affect cooperative relations with third countries,” adding, “China expresses support for this and, as a neighboring country, should do its utmost to improve the North Korean people’s livelihoods and welfare.” In other words, closer North KoreaRussia ties have propelled closer North KoreaChina ties.

Lu conveyed that North Korea’s economic development and improvements in people’s living standards also benefit China. Active economic exchanges and growth with North Korea affect the stability of China’s border regions along the North KoreaChina frontier and, by extension, public order and security. He said, “In the North KoreaChina border areas as well, economic and trade between the two countries have become more frequent recently, and we have confirmed that cross-border trade between the two countries has begun to recover.”

Regarding President Xi’s emphasis on cooperation with North Korea not only in diplomacy but also in “law enforcement” and the “military field,” he noted that this arises from the context of the two neighbors sharing a 1420㎞ border. He anticipated cooperation in cracking down on illegal border crossings, expanding exchanges between senior military officials on both sides, and in the area of military training. He said, “Strengthening North KoreaChina military exchanges does not mean a military alliance and is not aimed at any third party,” adding, “The goal is to prevent conflict in the region while not contravening China’s principle of non-alignment.” He said future North KoreaChina military cooperation could be similar to that between China and Pakistan.

On the issue of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, which was not mentioned throughout President Xi’s itinerary in North Korea, Lu said, “China’s position (supporting denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula) has not changed.” He added, “Sanctions are not the goal of denuclearization but a means,” and “If denuclearization is merely forced on North Korea, the issue could become more complicated.”

Lu said, “If North Korea halts nuclear testing, sanctions should also be eased, and sanctions should be implemented with consideration for their impact on people’s livelihoods.” Citing items such as chemical fertilizers that affect North Korea’s agricultural productivity or construction materials for improving housing as “essential means to improve living standards,” he said, “Sanctions that prohibit these are coercion.” He added, “China has opposed such sanctions.”

In response to the question “Can denuclearization be achieved without sanctions?” he noted that U.S. President Donald Trump held talks with North Korea in 2019 without result, and answered, “We must show sincerity by ceasing all forms of coercion and promoting peaceful dialogue.” He continued, “From the perspective of supporting denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, actions such as North Korea enshrining the status of a nuclear-armed state in its constitution will be at odds with China,” adding, “China must negotiate this issue on the basis of its friendly relations with North Korea, while also raising its voice in multilateral organizations such as the UN to check the United States and the West’s unlimited and unilateral abuse of UN Security Council resolutions, and to speak out on humanitarian grounds.”

Lu noted that President Xi has been in continuous communication with South Korea, including holding two summits with President Lee Jae Myung. He also said that explanations diagnosing the Northeast Asian diplomatic landscape as a confrontation between South Koreathe United StatesJapan and North KoreaChinaRussia do not accord with the facts. He said, “Japan has recently abandoned the principle of exclusively defense-oriented policy and, without historical reflection, has enabled the export of lethal weapons,” adding, “China, North Korea, and South Korea all face a situation in which there is a possibility of a revival of Japanese militarism.” He pointed out that Sout Korea’s strategy toward Japan differs from that of the United States.

He said, “China and both sides of the Korean Peninsula should jointly be wary of the trend toward a revival of Japanese militarism,” adding, “With regard to the economy and trade, the Korean Peninsula is currently in an adversarial phase, but we hope a new, peaceful, and stable phase will be realized.” He continued, “China has good-neighborly and cooperative relations with both South Korea and North Korea, and regards both sides of the Korean Peninsula as strategic cooperative partners. Therefore, China should promote peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and avoid new conflicts,” adding, “These matters were likely discussed at the summit.”

Lu emphasized, “ChinaSouth Korea relations are currently in a very good phase and will get better and better, and they are a very important neighboring relationship for China,” adding, “South Korea need not fear the new beginning in North KoreaChina relations. Peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula are also China’s hope.”