The football statistics company ‘Opta’ predicted a 42.9% chance that the team led by Hong Myung-bo will defeat the Czech Republic in the Group A opener of the 2026 North and Central America World Cup.

On the 10th, Opta updated and released its group-stage projections for the North and Central America World Cup on its website, generated using a supercomputer. After publishing projections for the 48 nations set to compete on the 2nd, Opta adjusted the estimates through additional simulations.

There was also a change in the forecast for the Group A opener. Opta rated the win probability for Korea at 42.9% in the first match against the Czech Republic. It estimated a 31.1% chance of the Czech Republic defeating the team led by Hong Myung-bo and a 26.0% chance of a draw.

Korea trails slightly in the all-time head-to-head with the Czech Republic at 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses, but the last meeting was in June 2016 (a 2-1 Korea win), so it is hard to draw strong conclusions. In the FIFA rankings, Korea (25th) are above the Czech Republic (40th). Opta said, “This year, Cho Gue-sung (Midtjylland) and Son Heung-min (LAFC) are leading Korea in attack. The two have scored two goals apiece to share the team lead,” and, “For the Czech Republic, Ladislav Krejci (Wolverhampton) and Patrik Schick (Leverkusen) have each scored two goals this year, posing a threat.”

Opta projected Group A finish probabilities for Korea at 22.4% for 1st, 28.4% for 2nd, 26.8% for 3rd, and 22.4% for 4th. It projected a 70.1% chance of Korea reaching the round of 32.

Mexico was given the highest probability of topping the group at 48%, while the Czech Republic, at 18.4%, trails Korea (22.4%). The probability of the Czech Republic advancing to the round of 32 is also lower at 64.2%, leading to an expectation that Korea advances as Group A runner-up.