Office worker Mr. Kim (35) had a full year left before his wedding, but he recently hurried to buy a home. This past April, he purchased a nearly new apartment in Eunpyeong-gu, Seoul, priced in the 900 million won range. He borrowed up to the 600 million won mortgage cap. He had scouted in advance where the couple would live after marriage, and, as he watched jeonse listings disappear, he decided to buy. Although having to repay about 3 million won a month in principal and interest is a burden, he judged that buying was better than paying roughly 2 million won in monthly rent. He said, "If I did not buy now, it felt like prices would be higher by the time we got married," adding, "After seeing prices jump by 100 million won over a few months while touring neighborhoods, I could not help but feel an urgent need to buy now."

Recently, about half of those buying apartments in Seoul have been in their 30s. Since the start of this year, people in their 30s have become a major force in the Seoul apartment market. Since 2020, the shares of buyers in their 30s and 40s had seesawed, but this year the proportion of buyers in their 30s has been rising steeply. There is little jeonse, monthly rents are high, and prospects for new housing supply in job-dense Seoul and the capital region have grown uncertain, spreading the anxiety that if they do not buy now, they will have to pay more later. Some interpret their anxiety as having carried over into recent changes in 30-something voting patterns in the Seoul mayoral race.

According to age-specific buyer statistics for Seoul apartments from the Korea Real Estate Board this year, the share of 30-something buyers was 32.6% in January, hit 40% in February, surpassed 43.4% in March, and reached 45.8% in April. In other words, about half of every ten Seoul apartment buyers are in their 30s.

By contrast, buyers in their 40s accounted for 25.1% in January and 26.5% in April, almost the same. Considering that buyers in their 40s were 33.3% in April of last year, the share of 40-something buyers has shrunk markedly over the year while the share of 30-somethings has clearly increased.

Licensed real estate agents are the ones who feel the 30-something buying wave the quickest. A realtor in Gwangjin-gu, Seoul, said, "In the past, it was rare for young couples without children to come see homes, but now there are many such young couples," adding, "Only when drafting the contract did I realize the buyers were in their early to mid-30s, and I have been quietly surprised several times."

Behind the 30-something "buying frenzy" lie a "jeonse drought" that is pushing semi-forced purchases and "FOMO (fear of missing out) buying" driven by the belief that prices will rise further if they do not buy now.

Mr. Kim was particularly angered last month when Blue House policy chief Kim Yong-beom said the upward trend in apartment prices under 1.5 billion won was due to genuine demand from younger generations and was "not something to worry much about." He said, "I was extremely angry," explaining, "It is not that we want to buy homes; we are being pushed because there are no jeonse listings."

"Because of the 5/9 policy (restoring heavier taxes on multi-home owners), listings are decreasing while demand is concentrating. When landlords throw out higher asking prices, anxious newlyweds grab whatever they can."

The jeonse and monthly rent crunch already shows up in indicators. Seoul's jeonse supply-demand index has been above 100 since last May and recorded 109.5 in April, the highest level since September 2021, when revisions to the Housing Lease Protection Act effectively extended jeonse terms to four years (2+2 years). An index above 100 means demand for jeonse and monthly rentals exceeds supply.

With jeonse listings scarce, jeonse prices have risen by more than 0.5% each month this year, climbing 0.82% in April. Monthly rents rose 0.73%.

Mr. Park (38), in his third year of marriage, has recently felt FOMO strongly. He had been visiting neighborhoods since last summer to buy a home, but postponed the purchase due to his spouse's pregnancy. He also had some expectation that prices might fall once the heavier transfer tax on multi-home owners took effect. However, as he watched prices rise instead, he said, "I was hit by FOMO that if I do not plant a flag in Seoul now, I will be in serious trouble."

Early this year, apartment prices in the Gangnam area and along the Han River belt dipped for a time due to the announcement that heavier transfer taxes on multi-home owners would take effect, but prices in northern Seoul rose sharply. In particular, after heavier transfer taxes on multi-home owners began on May 9, even Gangnam, which had fallen early in the year, has recently turned upward again.

Although not in Seoul, Ms. Lee Hye-jin (31), who had been struggling with the jeonse crunch, bought an apartment in Suwon, Gyeonggi Province, priced in the 900 million won range. She originally had no intention of buying. The apartment she had been watching had around twenty jeonse listings as recently as last year, but at the start of this year there was not a single one, prompting her to decide to buy. Regarding the government's real estate policy direction, she said, "On average, it is true that prices in Gangnam have gone down, but Gangnam is not an area we will live in anyway, so it does not resonate at all," adding, "In the end, the areas where people in their 30s can live have all risen, so it feels like desk-bound policymaking."

There are also people in their 30s deciding to get married in order to buy a home. Mr. Kim (34) says Seoul home prices make purchasing impossible unless both spouses work. He felt pressed for time after watching an apartment he had been eyeing since last year in Seonyudo, Yeongdeungpo-gu, surge from the 800 million won range to 1.2 billion won by year-end. Even before setting a wedding date, he is already touring neighborhoods. He said he wants the government to deliver targeted measures that can ease the anxiety of genuine demand among people in their 30s. "I would like at least a signal such as, 'If you wait a little, supply will come,' but when the focus is only on cracking down on multi-home owners, does that not just push prices up?" he said.

Some analysts say the discontent of "panic-buying" 30-somethings was expressed in votes for Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon in the June 3 local elections. Oh's camp ran throughout the campaign under the slogan "real estate hell." In a joint exit poll by the three terrestrial broadcasters at the time, 51.1% of Seoul voters in their 30s supported Mayor Oh, while 44.2% supported Jung Won-oh, the Democratic Party candidate.

Indeed, from May 9, when the upward trend in Seoul apartment prices resumed in earnest, changes in 30-something voter sentiment can be seen in opinion polls. Around the end of the grace period for heavier capital gains taxes on multi-home owners on May 9, listings from such owners dropped sharply, and Seoul apartment prices began rising again in earnest.

According to a KBS and Hankook Research poll, as of the April 25-27 survey dates, support among voters in their 30s stood at 30% for Mayor Oh and 36% for candidate Jung. However, on May 11-14 the figures reversed to 40% and 28%, respectively, and Mayor Oh maintained his lead through the end.

Experts pointed out that above all, the government must send a strong "signal" that it is increasing, and will increase, supply.

Yu Seon-jong, professor of real estate at Konkuk University, said, "(The government) says it wants prices to fall, but it has pursued policies that eliminate supply," adding, "The government needs to send concrete supply signals, such as supplying 100,000 homes on new sites in Seoul."