As a head-to-head contest between Leader Jeong Cheong-rae and Prime Minister Kim Min-seok is expected at the Democratic Party of Korea's national convention on August 17, attention is turning to whether the dynamic of party sentiment (party members' votes) versus suspicion (lawmakers' votes), as in the previous convention, will be replayed. Jeong, who is strongly favored to seek another term, has already moved to solidify party sentiment by emphasizing the one-person-one-vote system. Kim's camp, noting that Myeongsim (President Lee Jae Myung's intent) is aligned with the prime minister, expects not only lawmakers but also party members to rally to him.

Jeong appears to be reactivating the formula that brought him victory at last year's convention. In August last year, he scored a landslide over Rep. Park Chan-dae by relying on party sentiment. At the time, Jeong won 66.5% in the vote of dues-paying party members, which accounted for 55% of the total, and comfortably beat Park, who secured 53.1% among delegates, including lawmakers, which accounted for 15%. The election was seen as one in which party sentiment overcame suspicion.

On this day, Jeong shared on Facebook an article addressing internal disagreements over the one-person-one-vote system and stated, “The one-person-one-vote system is democracy itself.” The one-person-one-vote system gives equal weight to the votes of delegates and dues-paying party members. It was introduced through amendments to the party charter and rules in February, and in this convention the leader will be elected by combining 70% from the combined votes of delegates and dues-paying party members and 30% from public opinion polling.

At the party supreme council meeting the previous day, Jeong said, “It was the political reform of the Roh Moo-hyun era that ended the days when nominations were secured by tightrope walking under faction bosses and parachute appointments,” adding, “I believe that led to an era of one-person-one-vote and party members' sovereignty.” The same day, he amended party rules to change the method for selecting city and provincial party chiefs and national committee chairs to a one-person-one-vote system. He also posted on the Ddanzi Ilbo message board, a hub for many of his supporters, pledging to “actively push for live broadcasting of the lawmakers' general meeting” as party members have demanded. Observers interpreted this as an attempt to stimulate party sentiment and rally his base.

By contrast, Kim believes he has the edge among lawmakers. In fact, a significant number of pro-Lee lawmakers are poised to provide covering fire for him. As President Lee Jae Myung has recently expressed his affection for Kim at several official meetings, Kim's side expects a greater concentration of support among lawmakers than at last year's convention.

Some, however, predict that this convention will not reprise a party sentiment versus suspicion dynamic. A pro-Lee lawmaker said in a phone call, “Because the president has signaled that the party leader should be replaced, this election is not a lawmakers (versus party members) dynamic,” adding, “Other than hardline YouTube channels, there is little left for Jeong to lean on.” Another first-term pro-Lee lawmaker said, “A show of a majority of lawmakers gathering to prove a candidate is the prevailing trend offers no inspiration to party members,” and added, “By highlighting evaluations of the Jeong leadership, Kim will present himself as a candidate who reaches out to party members.” The pro-Jeong Cheong-rae camp, for its part, said that “party members harbor resentment toward lawmakers' shows of force.”

Forecasts also diverge on who will win the convention. A senior lawmaker said, “Judging by the YouTube ecosystem that heavily influences party members, Jeong's support among them is considerable.” Another lawmaker said, “The outcome has never been decided simply by the number of lawmakers,” but added, “Is it not that the president will keep sending messages until party members recognize them? With even a debate over responsibility for the local elections arising, I think Jeong's position has become more difficult.” A two-term lawmaker predicted, “Two months from now, the convention will not be an occasion to evaluate the local elections.”