Japan urgently needs to finish ‘top of the group’ to avoid Brazil in the round of 32
A comprehensive win over Sweden in the Group F finale tomorrow is essential
For Korea and its ‘permutation scenarios,’ a heavy defeat for Sweden is desperately desired
Japan national football team training. AFP Yonhap News
After the blow suffered against South Africa, the roadmap of the Hong Myung-bo squad to the 2026 FIFA World Cup in North and Central America has been badly disrupted. With direct qualification for the round of 32 no longer possible, Korean football fans now hope the results of the remaining group finales will carry Korea into the round of 32.
First, fans are focused on ‘the strongest in Asia’ Japan.
Japan will play Sweden in the Group F finale of the 2026 World Cup in North and Central America at 8 a.m. on the 26th at Dallas Stadium in Arlington, Texas, USA. With one win and one draw (4 points), Japan will secure at least second place and confirm a round-of-32 berth with even a draw.
However, Korean football fans want Japan to beat Sweden, and by as many goals as possible.
Sweden currently sit third in Group F with one win and one loss (3 points). In this 48-team tournament, round-of-32 tickets also go to the top eight of the 12 third-place teams. The ranking order is points-goal difference-goals scored-fair play points. Sweden are level on points with Korea but lead on goal difference, 0 compared with Korea at -1.
Sweden are also far ahead in goals scored, 6 to Korea with 2. If they lose to Japan by one goal, goal difference would be equal but they would lead on goals scored. If they lose by two or more, however, Korea would move ahead of Sweden on goal difference.
There is also a clear reason for Japan, who need only a draw, to chase a high-scoring win. The first- and second-place teams in Group F meet the first- and second-place teams in Group G in the round of 32; finish first and you face Morocco, second in Group G, but finish second and you must meet Brazil, first in Group G. Japan are level with the Netherlands on record and on goal difference at +4, but trail slightly in goals scored, 6 to 7. Given that the Netherlands face Tunisia in their finale, Japan should also take an attacking approach.
It is already confirmed that Korea are ahead of Scotland, third in Group C (3 points, -3 goal difference), and behind Bosnia and Herzegovina, third in Group A (4 points). Korea must climb above three more teams to secure a round-of-32 ticket.
For Korea, the best scenario is for the powerhouses to win their remaining finales. Germany, already confirmed as first in Group E, face third-place Ecuador (1 point, -1 goal difference), and second-place Austria in Group J (3 points, 0 goal difference) have a do-or-die clash with third-place Algeria (3 points, -2 goal difference). In the turmoil of Group G, it would help if Belgium and Egypt win. In Group L, it would also help if Ghana, somewhat weaker but with a solid defense that even troubled England, beat Croatia.
Help from Asian teams other than Japan is also needed. That includes Iraq in Group I (0 points, -7 goal difference), who play Senegal (0 points, -3 goal difference) in their finale, and Uzbekistan in Group K (0 points, -7 goal difference), who face the Democratic Republic of the Congo (1 point, -1 goal difference).