At the North and Central America World Cup, penalties are no longer ‘a sure scoring opportunity’. The conversion rate at this tournament has dropped noticeably, reaching a 40-year low.

Sports data outlet Opta Analyst on the 9th analyzed major World Cup trends and highlighted the decline in penalty conversion as a striking change.

By the time the quarterfinalists were set, 31 penalties had been awarded during matches. Only 21 were converted, for a success rate of 67.7%. That is the lowest since the 1986 Mexico World Cup (64.7%). Including shootouts, 20 of 59 were missed, for a 66.1% success rate. In the 1966 England and 1970 Mexico tournaments, all 13 penalties were converted, but since 77.6% at the 2014 Brazil tournament, the rate has continued to fall.

Goalkeepers have stood out at this tournament. Of the 31 penalties, keepers saved 7, and 3 went wide or hit the frame. Even Lionel Messi (Argentina), the ‘God of Football’, missed both of his penalties.

Opta pointed to the improvement of goalkeepers as the background to this trend. In recent years, keepers have analyzed takers' habits and preferred directions with data, and they prepare systematically for mind games and timing battles right before the kick. In other words, scientific analysis, not feel, is deciding outcomes.

By contrast, takers' kicks have stagnated. Even in a favorable one-on-one against the goalkeeper without a defensive wall, rushed shots influenced by keepers' analysis and timing battles are being missed or sent off target in quick succession. On the World Cup stage, the psychological pressure of ‘you must score’ also plays a big role.

At this tournament, Yassine Bounou of Morocco and Gregor Kobel of Switzerland rescued their teams from crises with decisive saves in penalties and shootouts.

Reuters also reported that shootouts and penalties are no longer about ‘luck’ but are becoming a specialized domain requiring research and analysis. Geir Jordet, a psychologist at the Norwegian School of Sport Sciences who has studied more than 700 international shootouts, emphasized that as goalkeepers' data analysis evolves, “takers' ability to withstand extreme pressure is more important than their penalty technique.”

With 48 teams, this World Cup is producing a historic ‘goal fest’, averaging 2.94 goals per match. But the opposite is happening with penalties, once considered the most certain scoring chance. The evolution of goalkeepers armed with data and mind games is shaping a new World Cup trend.