The contours of the selective volunteer system, one of the Lee Jae Myung administration’s key state agendas, are coming into view. During a visit to the Marine Corps Yeonpyeong Unit on the 26th of last month, the President said, “We will let people choose whether to pursue long-term professional military service or to comply with short-term conscription.” On the 25th of last month, the Ministry of National Defense said it is reviewing a plan to expand service choices by introducing technology-intensive NCO billets, calling this “the basic concept of the selective volunteer system.”

The selective volunteer system is intended to maintain the existing conscription-based mandatory service while broadening young people’s options by introducing technology-intensive NCOs that raise job appeal through training in advanced technologies. Draft-eligible youths could choose either the current 18 months of mandatory service, or a technology-intensive NCO track serving four to five years in fields such as AI and drone science and technology. The Ministry of National Defense explains that the goal is to introduce technology-intensive NCOs with enhanced competitiveness as jobs, in order to respond to the reduction in mandatory-service soldiers caused by population decline.

The current NCO system is divided into short-term (four-year) and long-term (seven-year) service, as well as term-limited NCOs who serve as sergeants after completing enlisted service. The Ministry of National Defense said discussions have only just begun on whether to revamp the existing NCO system in step with the introduction of technology-intensive NCOs.

The President first mentioned this system in December 2016, when he was mayor of Seongnam, ahead of the 19th presidential election. Multiple security officials predicted that the selective volunteer system would enter public debate, saying that “the President’s resolve to introduce it is clear.” As of last year, there were 224,127 twenty-year-old adult men, while there were 129,588 male newborns, so in twenty years the draft-eligible cohort will shrink by about 90,000. In response to the sharp drop in draft-eligible manpower, introducing a new military service system appears inevitable. We examine three issues embedded in the selective volunteer system.

■Is it an attractive job?

For the selective volunteer system to take root, the key is recruiting technology-intensive NCOs. Analysts say the first priority is to increase the job appeal of the NCO profession itself.

Korea is currently struggling to recruit NCOs. The Army NCO recruitment rate plunged from 95% in 2020 to 42% in 2024. Last year, 4,917 Army NCOs left the service, while only 1,470 were commissioned, less than one third of those who departed. Inside and outside the military, poor treatment of NCOs and assignments in remote areas away from major cities were cited as reasons for the decline in applications. This year, the average monthly pay at the first step for a sergeant is about 2.8 million won.

On the 19th of last month, the government unveiled ‘Comprehensive NCO Development 4.0’ to address this manpower shortage. Under the plan, next year the first-step monthly salary for a sergeant will be raised to around 3 million won. Kim Jong-dae, a former lawmaker and military expert, said, “Welfare and treatment matter, but it is also time to address the sense of isolation felt by today’s youth who prefer assignments in major cities, and to consider what kind of respect they will receive as professionals.”

Improving NCO treatment will likely require a budget on the order of trillions of won. Kim said, “Taiwan, which once moved to a fully volunteer force, failed to recruit enough volunteers and only managed to fill ranks after raising pay to twice the starting salary for university graduates,” and added, “The selective volunteer system should also be introduced step by step.” In fact, although Germany switched to a volunteer system in 2011 and set a goal of securing 203,000 active-duty troops by 2025, it fell short of targets, with 181,000 in 2019 and 184,000 in May 2022.

The Ministry of National Defense is designing specific incentive schemes for technology-intensive NCOs. The ministry said these NCOs would receive training related to their specialties, such as AI and cyber security. It is also reviewing ways to link specialties learned during service to employment after discharge. Within the military, however, there is a cautious mood that if the proportion of specialty training for technology-intensive NCOs grows too large, they could neglect their core duty of military service, so there is careful deliberation in designing NCO education that emphasizes specialties.

■Is it possible to shorten the mandatory service period?

Another issue is whether the mandatory service period for those who choose conscription could be shortened when the selective volunteer system is introduced. Given the mixed structure of volunteer and conscription tracks, adult men who do not apply for technology-intensive NCO posts must, as now, complete 18 months of mandatory service in the Army.

A group of experts who refined the selective volunteer system as a campaign pledge during the 2022 presidential campaign reviewed a plan to reduce the service period for those subject to mandatory service to 12 months. The idea was to reduce the time young men spend isolated from society.

If the service period were reduced to 12 months, the active-duty force in 2040 was estimated at 330,000, and if the current 18 months of mandatory service were maintained, at around 380,000. These projections are 70,000 to 120,000 fewer than the roughly 450,000 active-duty troops last year, but similar to the 350,000 that the Ministry of National Defense’s public-private-military special advisory committee recommended maintaining this January. A defense expert involved in the discussions at the time said, “If, along with the selective volunteer system, we simultaneously reorganize into an AI-based advanced smart force, the required manpower will decline, making a reduction in the mandatory service period feasible,” the expert said.

The government is leaning toward maintaining the mandatory service period at 18 months. An official at the Ministry of National Defense said on the 9th that “we are not reviewing any plan to reduce the mandatory service period.” Given the sharp decline in the conscript pool, cutting the period could break through the minimum troop level needed to maintain adequate combat power.

There is also a practical concern that if the mandatory service period is reduced, momentum for the selective volunteer system would weaken. The government expects that if the period were cut to 12 months, more young people would opt to complete their military duty as enlisted soldiers rather than serve four to five years as technology-intensive NCOs.

■Is it discriminatory by class?

An all-volunteer system is often criticized as class-discriminatory. There is strong concern that, if converted, only youths from low-income households would enlist.

In domestic politics as well, many argue that the selective volunteer system is not fair. Former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min wrote on his Facebook page on the 25th of last month, “The selective volunteer system would separate volunteer and conscript service by economic circumstances and could in effect become ‘a forced choice to volunteer’ due to poverty,” and, “This is neither fairness nor equity.”

The claim that the selective volunteer system is not fair is met by the counterargument that “the selective volunteer system is not actually a volunteer system.” Unlike an all-volunteer force, where only those who choose to enlist serve, the selective volunteer system would retain mandatory conscription, so people would serve regardless of economic background. While pursuing the selective volunteer system, the Ministry of National Defense has also stated as its official position that it “is not reviewing a shift to an all-volunteer force.”

Some also contend it is hard to view the selective volunteer system as discriminatory because it places emphasis on providing vocational training to youths who want it. Jeong Han-beom, a professor at the Korea National Defense University, said, “The core is not an approach that tells poor youths to go to the military and pay with their bodies, but that the government will create opportunities to learn and use advanced technologies and build careers.”

From a youth policy perspective, some warn that exclusion from opportunities may arise more by major than by economic background. The Ministry of National Defense is expected to give preference to majors in security and IT fields, including AI, when recruiting technology-intensive NCOs. In that case, high school graduates and humanities undergraduates who are not in science and engineering may find it difficult to apply.

Seo Bok-kyung, head of The Possible Research Institute and a political scientist, said, “It is meaningful to provide NCO vocational training so that young people are not locked into the military and to try to link employment after discharge,” and added, “If preference is skewed toward IT fields, high school graduates who did not study related majors may find it relatively difficult to obtain opportunities.”